Monday, April 25, 2022

How To Mislead With Statistics - New England Journal Of Medicine And Firearms Edition

You've probably seen the headlines today, echoed and repeated throughout the media along the lines of of:

Firearms surpass motor vehicles as leading cause of death among kids, UM researchers say

Of course, it depends on who you classify as "kids".  In order to get away with this misleading statement designed to cause panic and a demand for someone to do something, you have to play with the numbers a bit.  

The analysis, based on Centers for Disease Control mortality data from 2020 and published last week in the New England Journal of Medicine, showed that firearm-related deaths among children and adolescents age 1 to 19 increased 29% from 2019 to 2020.

Yep, they're doing the 18-year-olds and 19-year-olds are children when it comes to death by firearm.

Interestingly enough, that age range is how the CDC classifies children - but only for firearms death. For example for drowning deaths the age range for "children" per the CDC is from zero to 17. It doesn't include 18 or 19 because for drowning, that's an adult.

This is most likely due to most firearm deaths and especially murders being in the 18-19 year old prime criminal cohort, so the numbers can make it appear that children are being murdered.

The study linked to fails to breakdown deaths by age range, so we can't see what the death rate is if we exclude the 18 and 19 year old adults from the mix. But interestingly enough does look deaths of the 0-19 age range by race and the result is completely unsurprising.  It shows the vast majority are male Blacks a -- trend that has remained the same in 2019 and 2020 and with more than double the mortality of anyone else, and while hard to be sure, practically equal to or more than all other races put together. 

Black male mortality by firearms also shows the largest increase in 2020 which matches the current crime wave in Democrat-run cities after the BLM movement and soft-on-crime prosecutors have had their way.

Using 18 and 19 year old death stats to pump up "child deaths" is both painfully dishonest and manipulative, especially as gun deaths seem to be the only death that gets this extra boost to pump up the "kid death" numbers.  Of course the study calls for more funding - for more biased BS studies designed for advocacy rather than information.

How about NEJM and CDC re-run the study without the 18 and 19 year olds polluting thew statistics and then let us know what the numbers are, ok?

3 comments:

MrGarabaldi said...

Hey Aaron;

If Covid didn't prove that the CDC carried the water for the donks and their agenda, nothing does.Every time they use "Gun Deaths and Children" they always add the 18 through 21 normally because it really pads the numbers especially with the "Urban Yutes" capping each other off over turf and drugs and it is good for them to supply these data to the various gun control groups that trumpet the results on capital hill to try to stampede the "Normies" into backing more legislation (Like we need any more gun laws).

Aaron said...

MrGarabaldi: Yep, they lie rather transparently but the media broadcast sit as truth and doesn't bother to point out the rather unique spin and distortion on deaths associated with firearms.

Matthew W said...

Replace "Mislead" with "LIE".
I won't give them the benefit of doubt because they know what they are doing.

Speaking of statistics, did you know that teen pregnancy goes down quickly when women turn 20?