How To Mislead With Statistics - New England Journal Of Medicine And Firearms Edition

You've probably seen the headlines today, echoed and repeated throughout the media along the lines of of:

Firearms surpass motor vehicles as leading cause of death among kids, UM researchers say

Of course, it depends on who you classify as "kids".  In order to get away with this misleading statement designed to cause panic and a demand for someone to do something, you have to play with the numbers a bit.  

The analysis, based on Centers for Disease Control mortality data from 2020 and published last week in the New England Journal of Medicine, showed that firearm-related deaths among children and adolescents age 1 to 19 increased 29% from 2019 to 2020.

Yep, they're doing the 18-year-olds and 19-year-olds are children when it comes to death by firearm.

Interestingly enough, that age range is how the CDC classifies children - but only for firearms death. For example for drowning deaths the age range for "children" per the CDC is from zero to 17. It doesn't include 18 or 19 because for drowning, that's an adult.

This is most likely due to most firearm deaths and especially murders being in the 18-19 year old prime criminal cohort, so the numbers can make it appear that children are being murdered.

The study linked to fails to breakdown deaths by age range, so we can't see what the death rate is if we exclude the 18 and 19 year old adults from the mix. But interestingly enough does look deaths of the 0-19 age range by race and the result is completely unsurprising.  It shows the vast majority are male Blacks a -- trend that has remained the same in 2019 and 2020 and with more than double the mortality of anyone else, and while hard to be sure, practically equal to or more than all other races put together. 

Black male mortality by firearms also shows the largest increase in 2020 which matches the current crime wave in Democrat-run cities after the BLM movement and soft-on-crime prosecutors have had their way.

Using 18 and 19 year old death stats to pump up "child deaths" is both painfully dishonest and manipulative, especially as gun deaths seem to be the only death that gets this extra boost to pump up the "kid death" numbers.  Of course the study calls for more funding - for more biased BS studies designed for advocacy rather than information.

How about NEJM and CDC re-run the study without the 18 and 19 year olds polluting thew statistics and then let us know what the numbers are, ok?

An Election Is Coming Up - So Let's Change Covid Reporting Methods

In essence, the purpose of statistics is to accurately measure things. 

It becomes rather hard to accurately measure a thing when you change the reporting methods about the thing, making comparisons difficult if not impossible, likely due to an upcoming election.

The Detroit Free Press: Michigan health department to change how it reports COVID data

Starting next week, the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services is changing the way it reports coronavirus data.

It will update Michigan cases and COVID-19 deaths weekly, rather than three times a week, starting April 4 on its website

       . . .

The change in the way the state will report cases and deaths going forward adheres to a national surveillance strategy created by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said Lynn Sutfin, spokesperson for the state health department.

"At this stage in the pandemic, daily updates do not inform policy or contribute to the national surveillance program," Sutfin said. "Many states have also begun to move to less frequent public reporting of data.

Thus causing it to reflect a lagging rather than leading trend and likely end up reporting more cases but less deaths as a result. 

Most  interestingly, they're now going to reduce the number of deaths publicly attributed to Covid as well:

Another change is that the health department will no longer report how many COVID-19 deaths were discovered during a review of vital records.

That's quite a change, as that retrospective review was previously used to pump the death-from-Covid numbers up.

So the numbers will now be adjusted to reduce the numbers of deaths from/with Covid in the run up to the mid-terms, and also deliberately lag in case of an increase in cases.  Our Gov can now announce there are fewer deaths based on these new statistical methods as the midterms approach. 

Now isn't that wonderfully convenient?

CDC: There's A Midterm Election Coming, Time To Change The Covid Metrics

Up until today, per the CDC, all of Michigan and indeed  the majority of the country at large were considered to be areas of "High" or "Substantial" Covid risk and thus per CDC rules had to use masks in schools, indoors. etc for 95% of the country.  Nice and scary.

Then the polls were read.  The midterm elections grow ever closer.

Now, the CDC has suddenly decided to change how Covid is measured.  

Nothing has actually changed with our Covid numbers in the past couple days. But now we have new friendly pandemic risk metrics and just like that, suddenly 70% of Americans no longer need to mask up per the CDC. Quite a drop to 30% from 95% the day before, neh?

Now it is time for figures to lie and liars to figure to make everything happy again.  What was an area claimed to have a substantial or high risk of death yesterday is now a friendly low risk area today.

It's a medical miracle, really, quite simply astonishing.

The Detroit Free Press: CDC's new COVID-19 metrics plunge majority of Michigan into medium risk category.

This takes 66 out of 83 Michigan counties out of the substantial/high risk zone that they were all in under the old scary metric just a day ago, and puts 12 of them into the really friendly low risk zone and 54 into the pretty comfy  medium no mask zone under the new measurement. Suddenly case rates of Covid no longer matter.

An amazing change pretty much overnight, totally unconnected to the upcoming midterms, nor to any actual change in any facts on the ground. 

Child Development Messed Up By CDC's Covid Policies - In Response CDC Lowers Standards For Child Development

The fallout from the overreaction and hysteria about Covid is going to be felt for a very long time.

Substance abuse and deaths from substance abuse is sky high due to these horrendous decisions.

Mental health issues among teens is absolutely skyrocketing.  Mental health care is not keeping up.

Pre-teen mental health is also horrific right now.

Child development is also badly affected which is going to have effects on our country for a very long time.

Instead of admitting the stupid lockdown and masking policies caused developmental harm to infants, toddlers, and young children, the CDC has decided to do what bureaucrats always do when faced by the consequences of their failure:

Change and reduce the metrics for determining child development so the situation looks better than it is now.

CNN: Developmental milestones for children have changed for the first time in nearly 20 years

The CDC Should Have Learned By Now To Stay In Its Own Lane

But they have not.

Remember when the CDC decided to have mission creep and pontificate and weigh in on the social side of things, producing studies on bullying and gun control (aside from funding gain-of-function research in Wuhan, natch) leaving it woefully inept when it came to deal with its core function - disease control - with the coronavirus pandemic?

Good times.

Well, those times are back.

After all nice sounding platitudes and policy making for social issues real or imagined is easy, dealing with viruses is rather hard. 

Red State: The CDC Is Coming for Your Guns

Yes, the CDC under the Biden Administration is again trying to paint gun control as a public health matter and an epidemic that would call for emergency health powers in response.   

Guns are not a disease nor a virus. While it is impossible for the CDC to not be political, it's not too much to ask that they stick to their core function - disease control - at least until they can perform that core function competently -   before branching out into other Democrat policy preferences outside of the disease arena.

Biden And The CDC Just Thumbed Their Noses At The Supreme Court

The CDC's eviction moratorium, properly found to be unconstitutional, but then it was inexplicably permitted to last until it expired July 31 by the Supreme Court as they promised it would end as scheduled.

So what does Biden and the CDC announce today?

An extension of the moratorium with an announced "temporary" moratorium lasting until October 3, covering about 90% of the country and possibly more depending on how you read the footnotes in the order.

Biden is expecting the moratorium will last long enough to achieve some of the Democrat's goals, even as its unconstitutional as it will take time for any litigation to make it to the Supreme Court review:

Biden said that pending litigation will "probably give some additional time" for rental assistance funds to flow. The president said his hope is the new targeted action would in some way cover close to 90% of Americans who are renters.

In short Biden and the CDC just made Kavanaugh their bitch for his ridiculous decision to allow the moratorium to continue even as he declared it was unconstitutional based on a false promise from the government that it would end as scheduled.   Let's see if he falls for that again, assuming the Court even gets a chance to renew it before the CDC declares a new temporary moratorium after October 3.

Coming Soon: Ebola And Obama's CDC - The Seussical

Nurse: Can I travel after contact with Ebola and go with a fever on a plane?
CDC: Of course you can my dear, there's no shame!

Lab tech: Can I travel after exposure to Ebola on a ship?
CDC: Of course you can! Enjoy your trip!

Liberian Traveler: If from a place with Ebola can I come to Michigan?
CDC: As long as you state you're asymptomatic and self-monitor then come, come again!

Everyone Else: Will finally you stop travel from Ebola infected areas and impose quarantine to keep us all sane?
CDC: Never, that might interfere with Hope 'n' Change!

Feel free to add your own couplets in the comments.

YGTBSM: Liberian Visiting Oak Park [Michigan] Just Told To Watch For Ebola Symptoms

Our betters in government have apparently learned nothing and forgotten nothing. The outbreak in Dallas was apparently an insufficient wake-up call, so it's incompetent business as usual, and the consequences may be severe.

The Detroit News: Liberian visiting Oak Park told to watch for Ebola symptoms

The Oakland County Health Division said officials learned about the man from the Michigan Department of Community Health, which had been informed by the Centers for Disease Control, according to a statement.

The man, who has not been named, entered the United States through an airport in New York City, where he "was screened in accordance with CDC protocol before being permitted to enter the country," officials said. "The man said he had had no contact with anyone known to have the Ebola virus and was observed to be symptom free at the time of arrival.

"When he landed at Detroit Metro Airport, he was screened a second time by the CDC which showed he remained symptom free."

The CDC has asked the man to self-monitor his symptoms daily, and "out of an abundance of caution," an Oakland County Health Division epidemiologist has been assigned to communicate with him twice a day to monitor his health for at least 21 days, officials said in the statement.

So out of an abundance of caution they'll let a suspected carrier roam around in public and just self-monitor for 21 days?

CDC? That One Job Thing? Hello?

With this focus on political correctness and refusal to ban travel from infected areas for political reasons, the Obama Administration's response to Ebola is clearly desperate but not serious. With this administration, Hope seems to be the strategy.

CDC - Please Stop Screwing Up Just One Job, OK?

So not only was it incorrect that the second nurse got on the plane to Ohio without any symptoms as originally claimed, as she did in fact have a fever.

Incredibly, she reported she had a fever to the CDC who then told her she could travel anyways.

CBS News Medical Correspondent Dr. John LaPook reports that Vinson called the CDC several times before boarding the plane concerned about her fever.

“This nurse, Nurse Vinson, did in fact call the CDC several times before taking that flight and said she has a temperature, a fever of 99.5, and the person at the CDC looked at a chart and because her temperature wasn’t 100.4 or higher she didn’t officially fall into the category of high risk,” said Dr. LaPook on the CBS Evening News.

Yes, WTF was she thinking getting on a plane knowing she had a fever and had worked with an Ebola infected patient? If she was concerned and had two brain cells to rub together how about a voluntary quarantine or getting tested before getting on a plane with over 130 people on it?

More importantly WTF was the CDC rep thinking in okaying the nurse to travel? Is s/he still employed by the CDC at this point?

It's just not reassuring that Frieden of the CDC is now saying the risk that she infected other passengers is "extremely low", considering the stellar track record they've had on this so far.

One Job CDC, you've got Just. One. Job.

That's Not Very Comforting...

Airflow problems plague CDC bioterror lab

From USA Today / The Detroit Free Press.

A $214 million bioterror germ lab at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta has had repeated problems with airflow systems designed to help prevent the release of infectious agents, government documents and internal e-mails show.

While the agency says no one has been infected, a biosafety expert says the problems appear to be major violations of laboratory operating standards.

The area of the building with problems involves Biosafety Level 3 labs that can be used for experiments involving anthrax, dangerous strains of influenza, the SARS coronavirus, monkeypox and other microbes that have the potential to be used as bioweapons.

Hmm, and we're now experiencing a strange outbreak of face-eating zombies.

Nothing to see here, nope nothing at all, just a coincidence I'm sure.....