Tornado Warning

We are now under a Tornado Warning.

The sirens are going off, the sky is all sorts of dark, the wind is whipping impressively, and the rain is coming down in solid sheets.

So, I thought it was a good idea to quickly review tornado safety procedures:

 Good advice, that.

 Happy to be working from home today, and it is down to the basement I go.

Update:  I Did lose internet yesterday, but I didn't lose power more than a few short moments, and a few trees near me are down, but everything is back to normal with just some thunder storms around today.

Dam Trouble

What happens when you have 20 inches of snow pack quickly melting and days of non-stop heavy rain at the same time?

A really bad time for a lot of dams in Northern Michigan, and for the people living near them. 

The Detroit News: Northern Michigan lake drained after dam failure in Alcona County

The Detroit News: Residents told to evacuate downstream of west Michigan dam

The Detroit News: Cheboygan River remains less than 5 inches from top of dam. Friday updates

Dams with their spillways fully open are still not keeping up with the water, leading to the risks of the dams failing and evacuation warnings and orders have gone out.

Bridges are also at risk of failing with two already having failed: 15 Michigan bridges close, 2 fail as flooding concerns mount 

The views of the massive volumes of water coming out the spillways and still not keeping up with the flood is rather wild to see:

There's lots of homes being flooded and roads being washed out by the force of all the flood water. 

the Detroit News: Northern Michigan lakeshore, homes surrounded by water after flooding

Thankfully, no one had been reported to have been hurt of killed by the flooding and hopefully and in following evacuation orders that will continue to be the case,  It's still a massive and terrible blow to people there having their homes and property destroyed.

The Detroit News: Michigan faces new road challenges from 'historic weather challenge'

It's quite bad up there, but with luck the rains will let up and allow for the dams to catch up with the water flow and avert further damage.

Brrr

It's a tad cold out there right now. Heck, it's downright chilly.

The Detroit News: Brutal cold keeps icy grip on SE Michigan

Some roads are closed in the area due to black ice and slipperiness.  Lone Pine Road with its hills is closed as you're an out of control roller-coaster in your car if you go on it right now - inclduign slipping backwards down the hills.

The roundabouts were just a treat to drive through today, as you slip sideways while going round the circle which is really not as much fun as it sounds.

It's almost cold enough to the point where you can throw a boiling pot of water up in the air and it is absorbed into the atmosphere before it hits the ground.  

We should hit that temperature soon and it'll be fun to do.

In short, yep, we officially are in winter conditions in Michigan.

Getting The Kid Back To School

 

With all the weather on Friday night/Saturday getting the kid back to U Florida from Michigan was quite a challenge.  

The original plan was DTW-ATL-GNV leaving at an ungodly early 4:45 am from DTW, so needing to be at the airport ugly early.

 

Fun was driving to the airport in the snow. 

Snow that not a plow had touched at all.  In fact while, driving I saw all of one plow on the entire route.

 

The roads leading to the highway were absolutely snow covered. 

The highways themselves had no lane markings visible under the snow.

 

Thankfully the snow was not slippery icy stuff but more of a packing-snow type, so while slow going, it was reasonably safe going. 

Oakland County seems to be busy spending money on DEI rather than basic competencies like snow removal.

 

DEI and other progressive gee-gaws are luxury spending that, while a waste of money, should only even be considered after you have your core competencies down pat. Sadly they're sexier to Democrats than things like safe and clean roads.

Get to the airport at 2:00 am, the flight was soon announced as cancelled due to the mess in Atlanta.  Weather will do that.

Got her rescheduled to Jacksonville (would have to have had her Uber all the way to Gainesville but it was something) and got her through security at 6am for an 8 am departure.  Should be good as a direct flight bypassing Atlanta, right?

 

Wrong.

That flight was then cancelled due to lack of crew availability due to the weather messing up the system.

 

Then, I got her rescheduled back onto a later DTW-ATL-GNV flight at 10 am, which then was pushed back to 11 am and then was announced for boarding which was a good sign.

 

The flight boarded. But there was then a 1 hour delay sitting at the gate due to Atlanta being stacked for receiving aircraft.

 

They then got clearance to go, and they were off without incident around 1pm and landed in Atlanta. The ATL-GNV flight, then got rescheduled quite a few times but they got clearance to go around 6pm and she finally got back to Gainesville.

 

Upon landing, the pilot wished them all a happy semester and “Go Gators!” which was a very nice touch.  She met friends on te plane as it was mainly students heading back and shared an Uber getting to the dorm.

Through all the delays and weather trouble, the Delta  customer service reps were super helpful in rescheduling her flights and working to get her there.  

 

Thanks to Delta, the flight crews, and all the customer service representatives for all their hard work yesterday under some very trying circumstances. 

 

Having around 2 hours of sleep and hanging around the airport for hours trying to get her home did not make me a happy camper.  But she got there safely and that's what matters.   We could not get here there earlier to beat the weather as the dorms weren't open for students to return until Saturday, which is stupid. 

 

But she's now safe and sound in happy warm Florida.  I'm done shoveling out from the latest snowfall and back at work. 

Well That Was Interesting

So, DTE had let the management at the office building where I work that if the heat gets high enough, with resulting electrical demand, guess whose building gets the electric service shut down?

Yep, the one I'm trying to do work in.

Maybe additional reliable power generation should be put online rather than closing power plants and building rather quixotic and unreliable renewables, eh?

Happily they did not cut power during a meeting and no one got stuck in the elevator. But, as the temperature kept going up, as a protective measure I decided to work from home after my last in-person meeting in the afternoon.

Just as well that I did, as within an hour after I got home, the sky opened up hard with a really impressive thunderstorm that rattled windows and knocked out traffic lights all along the route I would have taken home. 

Power got knocked at home three times, but happily it did come back on.

That DTE addresses these issues by doing deliberate brownouts instead of working to generate power to meet demand as part of their and the Democrats running this state's greenie approach to things is rather pathetic and a lack of reliable power is going to be a major problem for this state.

That Was A Lot Of Rain

Got caught in quite a storm last night driving home from jitsu. Lots and lots of lightning and thunder and massive amounts of water coming down.

There was so much water on the road that when driving I didn't just leave a wake, I was producing waves on both sides of the car that were reaching the windows. Indeed, the water would slow the car down considerably in spots.

It was worse around jitsu, as they are doing road construction and likely have the sewer grates covered to prevent dirt coming in, so there was a lot more water on the road around there. 

Made it home safely, driving carefully and no major issues. 

The storm was certainly more enjoyable from indoors, though I got soaked twice - first going from jitsu to my car just a few yards away (needed the shower anyways) and then car to home (probably needed the second shower as well) .

This morning along the roadway there's a nice pond, complete with ducks, where there had only been a ditch before.

That's a lot of water dropping in a very short time.

So much so the storm from two nights ago fouled traffic at Detroit Metro Airport, due to both pumps failing, and again, road work with covered sewer grates leading to flooded out highway tunnels and lower areas on the highway, not to mention the sheer volume of water.

Didn't lose power but lots of other people certainly did, and Ingham County got to sadly experience a tornado, which is never a good thing.  

Update:  It's now confirmed that three tornadoes touched down in the state during this storm, ranging in power from EF0 to EF1, causing at least one death and a lot of property damage.

Cloudy and low IFR out today, which puts the kibbosh on a planned flight.

If You Need A Picture To Explain The Differences In Your Warning Terms

You probably need to use better words to explain it for dangerous hazards.

We're currently under a Tornado Watch - or is it a Tornado Warning? 

People are regularly confused by this.

What is the difference and can you explain it without looking it up?

Pictures of Tacos are cute, but if you have to refer to Tacos to explain the difference, then perhaps the terms Watch and Warning are too confusing. We need to probably choose better and more meaningful words that are not so similar as to be confused, especially for something more important than that.

I still think intuitively a watch is worse than a warning as a watch implies you can see it.  After all, watch means: "To look or observe attentively or carefully; be closely observant." That implies there's something to observe, like a tornado. 

While a warning by contrast, is a "A statement telling of or an indication providing evidence of impending danger, difficulty, or misfortune.'

That seems rather backwards from how the words are being used in regards to tornadoes?

Well, That Was Unusual

So it is snowing and coming down pretty good and they've called for 6-10 inches.  Schools closed early and the snow came right after.

 

Dogs wanted outside, they went out and suddenly there was a very bright flash, which made us wonder what the heck happened.  

Quite a few seconds later we got an answer as there was a roar of thunder.  Both dogs came ripping back to the door to come inside.

Yes, we're currently having a thunderstorm inside a snowstorm. 

Snow is falling, and lighting and thunder has now started really picking up.  It's still snowing and Jett is really not happy with the thunderstorm.

March may have came in like a lamb, but within the first three days has shifted to lion mode.

Update: The storm knocked out our power. Great.

Flying IFR - Lesson 51 - The Turbulent Grind

Weather conditions were hardly great for today. Low clouds and winds 15-30 out of 300. Snowing a tad as well.

Clouds lifted a tad but we filed an IFR flight plan anyways.

Did a checkride prep and failed it miserably.

Did all the radio and procedures just fine and I know what I'm doing but the basics screw me over yet again.

So off I went and climbed runway heading to 3,000 feet to KVLL. Ended up just under the cloud layer as it had lifted a tad, so I got to put the foggles on.

Did the full procedure at KVLL and for the first time in a long time, got totally blown off the RNAV and had a full deflection which would be a fail.  It did not take much.  Continued the approach anyways as I fixed it for practice and did the circle to 28 and again I need to get down faster.

Went missed and then headed to Pontiac where I did the Localizer Backcourse 27L and it went overall ok, but was doing quite a bit of S-turning as I kept getting blown off course a lot.  Again a little too high on final and need to get down more.

I'm likely leary of busting minimums and so staying too high, plus the winds and turbulence added to the fun and it actually pushed me up on occasion.

Altitude and heading control was maybe a little better, but still not where it needs to be. Still climbing too much and getting rocked around by turbulence didn't help matters.

Then for a partial panel for the RNAV 27L which I actually did quite well and landed fine in gusty conditions with a bit of side-loading as a gust just caught me as I was touching down.

So one decent approach and two not so good.

Only positive was it was quick, so it was wasting less money on this quixotic attempt to get this rating.

That's 1.3 with 1.0 simulated instrument time, 3 approaches, 1 hold, and 1 decent landing.

Stormy Weather

Had a lot of rain and thunderstorms yesterday and all through the night.

As an opener, we got an inch of rain in less than 10 minutes in the first downburst along with some hail.  Quite the storm rolled through.

My office lost power, just as I was working on a brief that was due yesterday. Didn't lose anything as I was working on a laptop.  But I couldn't print or do other things so I headed out back home through a fair bit of traffic that was slow as heck as the traffic lights were out and people couldn't seem to remember that when the lights are out it's treated as a 4 way stop.

That forgetfulness on their part got sporty on occasion especially when one lady in a larger SUV decided to barge her way through the intersection out of order.  Good times had by all.

Got home to the sump pump running like mad and the intake pipe looking like Niagara Falls.

The house had power so the work got done and all was well.

Power is still out at the office and it may not be on until midnight tonight or even later.  Lots of areas with downed trees and power losses.

Just another Michigan summer storm.

Special Sirens For Special Weather Awareness

Didja know that this week is Severe Weather Awareness Week?

Me neither.

Of course, Severe Weather Awareness Week is now being held when the weather this week has been pretty much the opposite of severe. There's been sun, it's been warming up, and no severe weather event of any kind has happened so far nor is it likely to occur this week.

Why they don't hold it during actual severe weather-worthy weeks like during the recent polar vortex is beyond me.

So today, for a special treat to raise awareness, the tornado sirens went off. To raise awareness. We're now aware the sirens work not just on the first Saturday of the month at 1pm but now on a Tuesday too. I am now much safer from this awareness moment.

Which leads to the next confusing severe weather point - without looking it up does anyone know the difference between a Storm/Tornado Watch and a Storm/Tornado Warning? Which one is worse? Who thought that using two similar W-words to distinguish the possibility versus the actuality of a dangerous event was a good idea?

Interestingly enough, for those who didn't know, a Tornado Warning is worse than a Tornado Watch.

One would think that if someone tells you to watch out for something it would be more severe and pose a greater danger than just getting a warning about it maybe happening, but that is not so.

Ouch You know it's Been Cold When...

You look at your car outside temperature gauge this morning:

And you consider that -7F isn't all that bad compared to the last couple days. Sheesh.

So How Cold Is It?

Windchill is now 35 degrees below zero.

So cold that when I took Jett for his night time walk, the bitter wind brought tears to my eyes, which froze immediately onto my eyelids.

So cold that Jett basically said to heck with it and cut his walk real short all on his own.

So cold you can throw a pan of boiling water up into the air and none of it hits the ground as water (yes did that again today for fun).

So cold that Pontiac airport is reporting a density altitude of -4,177 feet. Normal density altitude is positive 1,000 feet. That would make for some awesome airplane performance -- assuming you don't freeze to death during the pre-flight.

Just A Touch Cold Out There

Schools are cancelled, a state of emergency has been declared by the Governor, and the Post Man's appointed rounds have been suspended in this state.

Now at -8F with a wind chill making it feel like its -31F right now, it is a bit nippy.

The Driveway of Doom™ got me last night as I was plowing off snow that had accumulated on it. First fall of the season and ys the ground was rather cold, as was the air last night for that matter.

Today calls for hot chocolate and the kids are using their time off school well and helping to heat the house by baking some fresh cookies.

Yep, I Just Jinxed It But Good

It's now snowing, and snowing hard.

We may get that 6-8 inches today after all.

Snow-Ma-Geddon or Snow- MEH-Geddon Today?

The news yesterday was full of warnings of the upcoming snowmageddon today. 6-8 inches forecast starting at 6 am and continuing all flipping day.

Schools closed en masse. Kids are rather happy about that.

The Supreme Court and Court of Appeals closed.

Of course, the District Court I had a hearing set for this morning a good distance for the home and office did not close and my presence was required or my client would lose and not be happy.

Well, I woke up to no snow, which was good and headed north in only the slightest bit of snow coming down, not even enough to be called a flurry.

Thence in court and back upon the roads with no snow coming down at all.

In short, so far its much ado about not much precipitation.

Of course as I'm saying this I'm sure I'm jinxing it and we'll be hit hard shortly, but so far, it has put the Meh in Snowmehgeddon.

After all, this is Michigan and we do get snow here in winter, neh?

Snow Day

Well, the weather forecast was correct as far as its prediction of snow.

Snow we have had pretty much constantly coming down since this morning. Probably around 4 inches so far, far less than the 8 anticipated.

By 9:00 I had to clear the driveway to get out and drove without too much difficulty to my Saturday morning Jiu-Jitsu workout, save for being delayed by people who couldn't figure out how to drive in what was a relatively light but constant snow.

By 12:00 however it was coming down far more steadily, visibility sucked, and it was pretty clear that no one had plowed the roads in any way, which made the way home rather slow and slippy. Time to get off the road, especially considering the accidents witnessed on the way.

Thence I arrived at the newly re-snow-covered Driveway of Doom™, I made it up with only some slight slippage and hesitation at one point, but I kept the power to the wheels going and it made it up and into the garage, hesitate for even a moment and ease off the gas and you're stuck.

I then plowed the driveway yet again in much more slippery conditions, sliding down the driveway as I went, so Tash could make it up when she returned from her errands of the morning. The job was done and she got up no problem.

Snow is still coming down and I'm going to have to do it again and I must say the day has been quite a workout already.

This is the first serious snow day of the season. We've been rather lucky so far with only light dustings and nothing too serious. Winter hath definitely cometh.

Now time to relax around the house and having a hot beverage is in order.

Weather And Flying: It's Beginning To Sound A Lot Like No-Go

Today I was supposed to get airborne and finish my checkout on the Dakota. Just a quick cross-country from Pontiac to Lansing and back.

The weather in October frankly sucked - any time the instructor was available and I booked the flight it was below VFR conditions.

Today looked do-able, VFR conditions were forecast at both Pontiac and Lansing with good visibility but with broken cloud layers above 4,000. Kinda windy with crosswinds that would be very brisk but inside both the airplane and my own crosswind capabilities.

While the weather looks good the weather briefer had information that changed that outlook.

A weather system is moving in quickly from the north bringing lower overcast layers so VFR flying could be in question and we'd have to be below 3,500 to be out of the clouds. The freezing level was all the way to the ground, and Lansing had a potential forecast for precipitation which would mean icing, and the whole area has an Airmet ZULU for icing.

The weather briefer isn't allowed to tell you to go or not to go. They can however be rather crafty in making hints. I've never before heard such definitive hinting language from a briefer that going would be all sorts of a bad idea.

I can take a hint.

Not happy-making, but choosing to fly into known icing conditions in a non-known-icing capable aircraft is not a smart decision. Ice on aircraft makes for all kinds of bad things.

Talking it over with the instructor I said on that basis I wouldn't fly in that weather by myself, and after he checked the weather over he agreed as well with cancelling it. So a weather-scratch it was.

Ah well, the checkout will have to wait a bit longer.

That Was Not A Fun Way To Spend A Sunday

Last year the power was out for a week in March due to a windstorm.

Now it looks like we're going to be out for awhile as well due to yesterday's ice storm.

The Detroit News: Mich. Monday: Drizzly and 259K without power

The key difference between last year's outage and this one is rain.

Lots of rain.

Lots of rain and very sodden ground.

Yes, with no power, the sump pump pit was filling up at a ridiculous rate. We could only keep pace bailing it out by hand and we easily drained over 1,000 gallons (200 full 5 gallon buckets, and we did more than that) from the pit.

All day, and all night.

During the day the minions were helpful assistants while Tash was out working.

During the night, Tash and I did 2-hour shifts each bailing the pit and then getting a two hour nap and then up again.

It finally slowed down to where we could get ahead of the water coming in it at around 2 am this morning, and we were then only having to empty it every five minutes or so and it's now about a 10 minute fill time now.

More rain and even snow is in the forecast, along with possibly freezing temperatures tonight and no real estimate to when they will restore power yet but some people seem to think it will be back on by Tuesday at 8 pm.

This doth suck, and it sure was a lousy way to spend a day and night.

Ok, Who is Holding A Global Warming Conference Today?

Some joker out there must be holding one today, because it's snowing now, and heavily.

Practically the middle of April and we're getting a snowstorm coming down hard enough to reduce visibility and make driving hazardous.

Winter really needs to end.