The Media Has Learned Nothing And Forgotten Nothing

Our media today:

Chernobyl is in Ukraine. 

So verily, Ukraine has certainly already had their Chernobyl, and they, totally unimaginatively, called it Chernobyl, because it was Chernobyl.

Obama's adviser Ben Rhodes was right when he said:

“All these newspapers used to have foreign bureaus,” Rhodes told the Times in May. “Now they don’t. They call us to explain to them what’s happening in Moscow and Cairo. Most of the outlets are reporting on world events from Washington. The average reporter we talk to is 27 years old, and their only reporting experience consists of being around political campaigns. That’s a sea change.”

“They literally know nothing.”

Of course he used that ignorance to manipulate the media to the Administration's requirements and sell their spin.

That Time, a once venerable news magazine would run a headline and story that the dam collapse could become Ukraine's Chernobyl is beyond pathetic, and a clear sign of the lack of actual real-world knowledge among news reporters today.

Thanks, But No Tanks, For The Parade

Russia does love its Victory Day parade.  

But this year's parade seemed impressively short on Armor:

Russia only had a single, solitary, World War 2 vintage T-34 tank to clank on the  parade route, rather than the columns of armor in years (see here for 2019 for example) past.

Per observations by OSInt, there was a distinct and marked shortage of armored vehicles on display this year.  Most of Russia's armor is now parading not in Red Square but instead on parade as hulks situated along Ukrainian roads with their turrets blown off.  

There were also no flyovers in the parade, unlike in years past. The war in Ukraine is clearly going badly for Russia, as demonstrated by a lack of armor and armored crews to spare for their premier parade.

Andrei, have you lost another ship?

The Mirror:  Russia's Admiral Makarov warship 'on fire after being hit by Ukrainian missile'

So, a Russian frigate has apparently been hit by a Ukrainina anti-ship missile and is currently on fire.  

Be interesting to see if the Makarov's  damage control is on a par with the Moskva.

The cost to Russia in blood and treasure for their misguided invasion adventure in their near abroad is certainly mounting. 

Whether Putin's Russia can extract itself from this mess of their own making or will decide to further escalate this stupidity out of control will be an interesting question.

Whatever Happened To Silent Professionals?

Washington DC leaks like a sieve. It seems no one can keep their mouth shut about some elemental national security matters. 

Doing something is one thing, talking about it is something else.

The intelligence establishment apparently can't shut up.

CNN: US provided intelligence that helped Ukraine target Russian warship

NY Post: US intelligence reportedly helped Ukraine kill Russian generals

Again, doing it and providing Ukraine that intelligence is appropriate and that's one thing. 

Announcing you are doing it and broadcasting it to the world -- including to Russia -- that you're doing it is a rather stupid -- both as an unnecessary escalation, and stating that we're doing it needlessly confirms information for Russia that they shouldn't be given.

Simply stupid. 

Update:  Revealing this information isn't from a leak. It's amazingly an officially sanctioned policy to reveal and confirm this information:

Pentagon spokesman John Kirby confirmed to the Times that the US provides “Ukraine with information and intelligence that they can use to defend themselves,” while refusing to “speak to the details.”

This is unfathomably stupid.  Whatever happened to "No Comment"?

Do Svidanya Moskva!

From news reports, it appears the Ukrainians have sunk the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, the Cruiser Moskva (Moscow) with two Harpoonski  (Soviet copies of the US Harpoon, apparently upgraded since by the Ukrainians) missiles.

The Wall Street Journal:  Russia’s Black Sea Flagship Abandoned, Damaged After Ukraine Claims Missile Strike Sank It

Considering the stated impressive anti-missile defenses on the cruiser, the loss of it implies the Russian Navy is in the same sad shape as the Russian Army.  The anti-missile systems (including six Russian copies of the US Phalanx CIWS system) not work to knock out a couple missiles.  On top of that, the crew abandoned ship and their damage control procedures and efforts seem to be rather sub par.  Much smaller US Navy ships have been hit by bigger missiles and survived, thanks to exellent damage control procedures and training.

The training and equipment seem to be so sub par that the Moskva may have already transformed into a Sub, albeit one that cannot surface.

To add to the festivities, it was Moskva that had shelled Snake Island  and to which the Ukrainians famously  replied to surrender demand by telling the ship to do something anatomically impossible.

A loss of a major surface combatant is a big deal, and the extensive string of Russian failures on land and sea both is not exactly making them look like a competent peer military power that they had been proclaiming themselves to be.

Biden's Handlers Really Need To Get Him To Shut Up

The President of The United States is a public figure, one of the most consequential figures in the world. Even off the cuff statements matter, especially concerning major events on the world stage.

So far Biden's gaffes regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine have included a multitude of consequential statements. 

- He was  calling for the removal of Putin, which was quickly walked back by his staff as a personal opinion and not that of the President of the United States;  

- He stated the 82nd Airborne would be going to Ukraine. Quickly walked back as a gaffe.

- In a statmeent reminiscent of Obama' famously ineffective redline Biden stated that  Biden: US response to Russian chemical weapons in Ukraine ‘would depend’ on use.

-And of course who can forget the gaffe that green-lighted it all, that Russia's minor incursion into Ukraine might be tolerated?

What the President of The United States says, even in moments of dementia has consequences. 

Now the latest gaffe by Biden:

The Guardian:  First Thing: Biden accuses Putin of genocide in Ukraine.

Expect this to get walked back by his staff post-haste and that even as the President said it (at least twice) it's somehow not the policy of the Oresident of the United States.

Declaring a genocide strongly implies the world has to do something about it. 

As Joe goes running his mouth he's making the situation worse.

Everyone knows the invasion is not going well for Putin, which is unquestionably a good thing. 

However as things continue to go bad, its important to not forget that Russia is a nuclear chemical and biological-weapon armed power run by an autocrat and said autocrat, Putin, needs to be provided a face saving way to get out of this mess he has created, as you don't back someone with the capability Russia has into a wall with no way out.

Autocrats are going to autocrat, and the abject failure of the Ukraine invasion already makes Putin's position in Russia perilous. 

Making statements for his ouster or treating him as a war criminal will make him likely to dig in and potentially expand the war rather than have him do a  face saving withdrawal where he proclaims victory for local consumption and ending the invasion if he feels his position is threatened even if he retreats.

You also don't make threats on the diplomatic stage that you're not willing to back up, and Biden has been rather demonstrative in his lack of backing his statements up, or having them repeatedly walked back by his staff, rendering him even more ineffective.

Biden's minor incursion gaffe, followed by his declarations of regime change, an ineffective chemical weapon warning (that may have already been taken by Russia as allowing them to use chemicals, and now using the "G" word are simply making the situation much worse.  

Combined with his staff walking his comments back or "explaining" them the United States is seen as indecisive in this situation and acting unpredictably which can be very dangerous when instead a clear message that Putin needs to stop the invasion if he wants to remain in power should be sent, along with a clear incentive that the world will lift the sanctions on Russia once they withdraw from Ukraine.

In short there needs to be an end to the meaningless and often reversed statements coming from Biden's mouth, and a more realistic and clear statements to Putin on a way to cease his invasion of Ukraine without it being conditioned on his removal.

The New York Times Buries The Lede Completely

The New York Times in The morning email (and on its website) asks an important question: Good morning. We look at why the West didn’t try harder to prevent the invasion of Ukraine.

The article asks and looks back to see if there was any way to have stopped the Russian invasion of Ukraine and what the West could have done. 

First the article really, really, realy soft-peddles the fact that Russia has strategic nuclear weapons, which is one helluva factor in any active boots-on-the-ground response, unlike the 1991 Gulf War they compare as an example of a grand alliance responding to aggression.  Pace the Times, this is one heckuva difference a a rather important one.

The article addresses the meek response by Western Europe, due to it's lack of military spending and military capabilities. Remember when Trump was cajoling them to spend more on defense as part of NATO and the NYT and others were aghast and agog that he dared do so and accused him of weakening the alliance?  Good times.

The article now expects Western Europe to start taking more of a role in its own defense.  Hmm, someone was pushing for that just a few years ago and was derided for it by the Times. 

The article also completely ignores Western Europe's deliberate decision to make themselves reliant on Russian gas rather than producing their own gas and power.

It then goes on to accuse America of being isolationist and not wanting to commit ground troops.  Rather facile that, and again ignores the whole potential for a nuclear exchange as a result, not to mention the deliberate weakening of the US military and its current laser-focus on diversity, inclusion, and equity over war-fighting.

One rather important event is conspicuously missing and completely unmentioned for why there was a lack of deterrence to a Russian invasion:

Namely, Biden's public statement that a minor incursion might just be accepted:

“I think what you’re going to see is that Russia will be held accountable if it invades, and it depends on what it does,” Biden said. “It’s one thing if it’s a minor incursion, and then we end up having to fight about what to do and not do, et cetera, but if they actually do what they are capable of doing with the force they’ve massed on the border, it is going to be a disaster for Russia.”

The White House later clarified his remarks, saying any movement of Russian forces into Ukraine would be considered an invasion.

Biden's statement provided the opposite of a strong deterrent effect and instead green-lit a "minor incursion", emboldening Putin to go for a lightning strike decapitation of Ukraine's leadership which thankfully failed. 

Biden's "minor incursion" remark will go down with April Gillespie's "We have no opinion on your Arab-Arab conflicts" and that "the Kuwait issue is not associated with America" as exactly how you do not prevent an invasion and rather embolden and invader via diplomatic statements.

The Ukraine Invasion: Compare And Contrast

1. What A Leader Sounds Like:

The New York Post: ‘I need ammunition, not a ride’: Zelensky declines US evacuation offer

The US government offered to evacuate Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky from Kyiv — but he declined.

“The fight is here; I need ammunition, not a ride,” Zelensky said, The Associated Press reported, citing a senior American intelligence official with direct knowledge of the conversation.

Zelensky, 44, instead chose to remain in Ukraine’s capital as Russian forces brought the fight to the city streets, where gunfire and explosions were heard overnight Friday into Saturday.

That's a leader.

2. What a Complete Dolt Sounds Like: 

New York Post: John Kerry blasted for saying he hopes Putin will focus on climate change as Russia attacks Ukraine

“But equally importantly, you’re going to lose people’s focus, you’re going to lose certainly big country attention because they will be diverted and I think it could have a damaging impact,” Kerry continued.

“So, you know, I think hopefully President Putin would realize that in the northern part of his country, they used to live on 66 percent of the nation that was over frozen land,” he said.

“Now it’s thawing, and his infrastructure is at risk and the people of Russia are at risk,” Kerry added. “And so I hope President Putin will help us to stay on track with respect to what we need to do for the climate.”

That's a complete and utter dolt and dottard.

It's a very good thing he never became President.

3. What Biden Sounds Like:  Nothing.  

The White Hoiuse released a statement, so we don't know what he sounds like, or even if he wrote it.  The content of it is however rather underwhelming:

Basically he offers prayers, and 

"I will be monitoring the situation from the White House this evening and will continue to get regular updates from my national security team. "

Very inspiring. After releasing the statement, Biden then left the White House and headed off to Delaware for the weekend.

That's what we've got in office right now. That's on you Democrats, hope you keep on enjoying your minor incursion.

Just When You Think You've Heard The Dumbest Things On The Ukraine Crisis, Along Comes The New York Times

So how are you all enjoying the "Minor Incursion" so far?

Do notice how it didn't happen under Trump, whom many falsely accuse of being Putin's puppet  (forgetting that Trump put the biggest hurt on Russia of all the most recent presidents), but happened under the "adult in the room" Biden, and before him the last Russia into Ukraine incursion was under Obama.  

Why is that, one wonders? 

Anyways, The New York Times doesn't consider such a question, no time to dwell on it I suppose, but it did go on to ask the following this morning.

The New York Times: Good morning. Why aren’t the U.S. and its allies imposing tougher sanctions?

Behind a paywall, but you can get it sent right to your email box.

The author of the piece notes the announced sanctions aren't exactly severe, (who coulda guessed that would happen?) and then wonders why more aggressive sanctions aren't being carried put and suggests some that reveal a complete lack of understanding of reality,  so let's get to the funny bits:

But it’s also worth taking a look at the potential sanctions that the U.S., Britain and the European Union have chosen not to impose. They are almost certainly more severe than the sanctions going into effect. A full-scale diplomatic response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could include:

-Suspending Russia from international organizations, like the SWIFT network of banks (as Representative Adam Schiff, a California Democrat, suggested yesterday) and the Interpol network of law enforcement

-Seizing apartments, yachts and other assets owned by many members of the Russian elite in London, Miami and elsewhere, as Anne Applebaum of The Atlantic has suggested.

-Cracking down on Vladimir Putin’s propaganda tools in the West, including the RT television network, and on people like Gerhard Schröder, the former German chancellor who now works for a Russian oil company.

-Perhaps most significant, sharply reduce purchases of Russian oil and natural gas, by far the country’s largest source of revenue.

Ok, now that we're done laughing at the naivete, let's go through some of these.

Swift and Interpol: Dumping Russia from SWIFT and Interpol is not something that happens overnight. Doing it will have some dangerous effects on the world financial system, not to mention undermine lots of anti-money laundering and anti-terrorism efforts and monitoring that happen in the SWIFT network and Interpol.  Want Russia's international money movements and their criminals activities outside of Russia to go totally dark?  Have at it.

Seizing Other People's Stuff: Notice how Progressives just love to seize other people's stuff?  Also there's nothing better than a pundit yelling: "Hey let's have you and him fight"  from their happy place. No chance any of that could go badly nor of any retaliation, nor seizing innocent people's stuff, right?

Cracking down on other media:  Ah, the MSM's ongoing dream of censoring other news outlets.  Obviously RT runs propaganda, but you can gain some useful intel from what they're saying - and what they're not saying. Not to mention they do run some actual news now and then that our MSM doesn't touch.

And now for the dumbest suggestion yet:   Have Western Europe and the US stop buying Russian oil and natural gas.

This is where you can tell the author has no damn clue whatsoever and an utter lack of seriousness.

Western Europe has been going on a greenie climate change binge for awhile now, and has dumped their power generation and heating capacity and is now fully and totally dependent on Russian gas.

It's not like they can just stop buying it - they can't.

Biden had lifted sanctions that had been imposed by Trump on the Russian pipeline bringing gas to Western Europe, cementing Europe's dependence on Russian gas.  Biden also cancelled support for the Israel to Europe gas pipeline making Western Europe even more dependent on Russian gas with no alternative supply.

Biden also cancelled Keystone and multiple oil and gas drilling leases in the US, reducing our production, so dont expect the US to step in, and we now we need to buy Russian gas too - they're now our largest foreign supplier.

What is Western Europe, with no alternate - by design - to Russian natural gas supposed to do mid-winter? Just turn it off and tell their people to freeze for the cause? 

Good luck with that happening, you Greenies and Dems toadying up to Russia made that impossible.  

It's not like there's now an American surplus of oil and gas to step in and provide supply.  Biden and the Dems aggressively nixed that opportunity and show no inclination of reconsidering and getting production up to even pre-pandemic levels.

The utter clueless-ness of the so called experts and the pundits of our media, in America's allegedly leading newspaper no less,  is rather hilarious and depressing as well.

Prediction on The Ukraine Crisis

Failing any miscalculation or an over-enthusiastic underling somewhere messing things up, here's how I expect the Ukraine crisis to resolve.

1.  Russia gets dominion, whether by formal annexation or by influence/ volunteer occupation, over the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, which is likely all that Putin wanted this round anyways as well as sending a message that Ukraine was not to join NATO.

This was just affirmed by the Biden administration as it immediately announced sanctions over these two regions - before they have actually separated from Ukraine. That's a rather tacit recognition of the breakaway - you don't sanction a part of Ukraine that is still a part of Ukraine, especially when Ukraine is your putative ally.

There will be some noise, the announced sanctions will not actually prevent Russian hegemony over the region, and the sanctions themselves will be easily routed around by Russia. 

2.  Putin gets to shore up his support in Russia by appearing to be a strongman and looking after the Russians in the regions he just separated from Ukraine - not to mention the resources of the regions. He also made Western Europe very aware of his hand on their energy spigot.

3.  Biden gets the media to trumpet his foreign policy victory of preventing war in Europe by his "tough" imposition of sanctions on the region and threats of economic sanctions on Russia after he beat the drums on the crisis by repeatedly claiming Russia had decided to invade and he'll now claim his toughness stopped it.  He gets a foreign policy distraction from the mess he's made domestically and the media can showcase his  "success" in stopping a war in Europe.

4.  The media uses this to rehabilitate Kamala Harris's image a bit as she was sent there by Biden to represent him on the situation.  Even as she gave a ridiculous, pablum-filled,  and self-contradictory speech  ("We will deter an invasion because we will impose severe sanctions if Putin does anything" and "Putin has already decided to invade" - in the same speech) she will get lots of positive coverage.  The buffing of her image is already occurring.

5.  Western Europe, after reducing their own energy generation, now remains assured of a continued flow of their needed natural gas from Russia that they depend on, so long as they don't actually do anything against Russia's territorial ambitions. All it cost was a few regions of a country they don't care much about anyways and can't do much for in any case.

In short, everybody involved wins a nice victory for domestic consumption and distraction.  Everyone, that is, except Ukraine, and the Eastern European independent states that are going to be even more nervous of being left to twist in the wind after this crisis.

Looks Like Biden Has Some 'Splainin' To Do

So it now looks like what Trump was accused of and impeached for regarding Ukraine - Joe Biden actually did, and profited from it through his son as well.

Instapundit: COLLUSION: Smoking-gun email reveals how Hunter Biden introduced Ukrainian businessman to VP dad.

I daresay Hunter Biden is kicking himself now for failing to pickup that laptop.  

 The emails show Joe Biden was lying about not knowing about his son's business dealings in Ukraine.  It also ties together nicely his extortion of Ukraine over firing the prosecutor investigating Burisma while Hunter Biden sat on the board of Burisma.

A Biden own-goal October surprise - but only if anyone takes notice and if the media cares to cover it and for now it seems the New York Post is the sole media outlet gicving this attention.

Interesting how neither the Detroit News nor the Detroit Free Press make any mention of this rather damning discovery.  Had such damning emails about Trump come to light right now they would have been top-story, front-web-page news.

You Know The Ukraine Is A Lost Cause When Obama Sends Biden To Demonstrate Support

Instead of sending something or even someone useful, Obama sends the Ukraine.....Biden.

No word yet on whether Biden told them to just use a shotgun if armed men break into their border.

The Detroit News: Biden in Ukraine to show support as tensions rise

Vice President Joe Biden on Monday launched a high-profile visit to demonstrate the U.S. commitment to Ukraine and push for urgent implementation of an international agreement aimed at de-escalating tensions even as violence continues.

Biden planned to meet Tuesday with government leaders who took over after pro-Russia Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych was ousted in February following months of protests. The White House said President Barack Obama and Biden agreed he should make the two-day visit to the capital city to send a high-level signal of support for reform efforts being pushed the new government.

Yeah, Ukraine is hosed.

Obama To Ukraine: CrimeA River

Obama just issued a sternly worded note of concern to all the goings on in Ukraine. That and a $1.50 may buy the Ukrainians some cold comfort.

History may not repeat but it sure is rhyming here, and not in our geopolitical favor.

We have an area with an ethnic population with kinship and identification to a neighbor rather than to their fellow countrymen, armed men swarming about, and outside military intervention set to separate the region from its nation-state.

Yep, the precedent set with Kosovo separating from Serbia kinda fits the current situation nicely, and remember, a Democrat predecessor to Obama was firmly on Kossovo's side back then in separating it from Serbia.

Awfully hard to insist on territorial integrity for the Ukraine when but a few short years ago the precedent was for the opposite result.

Multiply that by the fact that there is no effective means for the US or the EU to protect the Ukraine from Russia grabbing back the historically Russian Crimea, which is populated by a majority of ethnic Russians.

In other words, mildly worded warnings and platitudes are the most you can expect from Obama at this point. Especially as he's busy cutting our military to focus on further transforming the US domestically and preventing the US from acting in its interests abroad, it's not likely he's going to push for a grand Eastern European vacation.

Even if he wanted to do so, it wouldn't be a good idea.

As Michael Z. Williamson said recently on Facebook: "Please DO NOT tell the President we have a Light Brigade.".