Thursday, March 26, 2020

The Imperial College Coronavirus Apocalypse: It's Only A Model...Shh

It now appears that the doomsday model by The Imperial College London of the Wuhan Flu is off.

How far off? By over a factor of 20. Daily Wire: Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Revises Model Also see the article in New Scientist

Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.

However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson is presenting drastically downgraded estimates, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments, as reported by New Scientist Wednesday.

That's one Heckuva over-estimate.

The revised model is certainly good news, assuming it proves to be valid, especially as the 18+ months of lockdown in the original paper is apparently being revised downward drastically as the new model suggests the virus should subside in about a two to three weeks.

In short, the Wuhan Flu is still bad, no question. A lot of people are still going to die, but it's not the disaster that had been forecast. It's likely will be about another excessively bad flu season and a half worth on top of an already bad flu season, which is no joke.

New Scientist article mentioned in the Daily Wire quoting the corrections by Ferguson is here.

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