Saturday, October 04, 2008

Economic advice for today's troubled times

Given the daily feed of bad news we've been getting about the financial crisis, stocks losing value, dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria, I thought this clip was most appropriate:



The clip is from Gremlins 2 - the famous shotguns and canned goods line.

Friday, October 03, 2008

McCain pulling out of Michigan?

Yes, this state has been going down the tubes since it started going seriously Democrat - between a Democrat governor and its major city mismanaged to death by Democrats its easy to say that Michigan is again a lock for the Dems this election year.

So McCain is pulling out resources from our state to try and fight in areas where he might win.

Mind you I believe McCain did have a shot here - if he had kept the pressure up and noted that if the State goes Democrat again, we're doing more of the same and the state can expect the same result - economic doldrums mixed with goofy social policy.

Michigan and Detroit in particular is an example of Democrat dominance in microcosm.

He should have stated that voting for "change or hope" got Michigan into its current mess and its time for Michigan to vote for someone who actually knows what he's doing and can offer more than empty promises of change and hope.

Michigan, especially with the rest of the state outside the urban areas and along with the rational Macomb County Democrats this state could be a place the Republicans could fight for and even win.

Hopefully this is just a strategic redeployment and McCain hasn't written the state off yet.

Wednesday, October 01, 2008

Dive #101 - Got the back kick!

After a long diving season trying, I finally got my back kick and actually could move backwards underwater in this dive.

Diving with my friend Rob, we got entered Union Lake and just worked on kicks and buoyancy control.

This time I decided to try something different. I swapped fins with Rob and instead of using my ScubaPro JetFins, I used Rob's Power Fins.

It made all the difference - they don't look very different but there is a very real performance characteristic variance between the two fins. The Power fins are shorter and not as flexible or "snappy" as the Scuba Pros, and are much more forgiving when learning the back kick and have much better control from the foot. The Jet Fins apparently have the advantage with the frog kick, and the back kick once you have it mastered -- which I do not.

I'll tell you though it was a great feeling to actually move backward nice and easily after struggling with the skill for so long.

Now that I know I can do it, it is time to refine it and get the rest of the skills in good shape. Rob has graciously swapped fins with me for awhile so I can get this skill down and not be stuck learning it in the jets, for which I'm quite thankful.

It's about time.

Sunday, September 28, 2008

Bailout deal apparently reached

You know how the Democrats are the evil party and the Republicans are the stupid party? How when they come together and do something both evil and stupid its called bipartisanship?

Here goes: Deal reached on financial markets bailout From the Detroit News:
Congressional leaders and the Bush administration reached a tentative deal early Sunday on a landmark bailout of imperiled financial markets whose collapse could plunge the nation into a deep recession.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced the $700 billion accord just after midnight but said it still has to be put on paper.

"We've still got more to do to finalize it, but I think we're there," said Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who also participated in the negotiations in the Capitol.
The report is very short on details and hopefully we'll find more about what we've just had done to us shortly (likely too late to do anything about it), but for now hang on its going to be an interesting ride.

Housing crunch causes and bailout follies

Speaking of crashing like the housing market, here's a decent video as to one of the causes of the current mess.



The cause outlined in the video -- the Democrats revamping of the CRA and pushing banks to lend to those who could not really afford home loans in the first place is not the only reason, but it does seem to be the spark that began the fire. Once the CRA and government led housing boom started, then coupled with the irrational belief that houses would always go up dramatically in value encouraging both quick flips and people buying homes they couldn't afford hoping the increase in value would let them refinance and have massive equity growth, we got to where we are today.

Once this irrational belief was fixed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac encouraged ARMs and 100% loans to get more people owning houses causing values to rise as demand went up. Investment bankers went along, coupling this with quick sales of loans and then repackaging them into securities that were sold to others and it got worse from there as they then leveraged these securities beyond any rational limit.

In short, the government and high-finance wizards played with our money, got rich on bonuses (or campaign contributions and sweetheart loans in the case of the politicians), and we're left to clean up the mess. Sorry but the bailout is ridiculous in its current form, and even more ridiculous that Frank and Senator Dodd (both recipients of Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac largess and proponents of the policies that caused this mess)are inserting into the bill that 20% of the returns from the bailout does not go back to the taxpayers (or even the government) but to housing advocates such as ACORN - you know the people who helped start this mess in the first place. Nice.

More fun with Vista

This computer is crashing like the housing market -- with no bailout in sight. Everytime Windows does an automatic update, on the next shutdown and startup it fails to boot, requiring a hard turnoff then it starts windows repair and then works.


In search of a remedy I contacted HP technical support. After describing the issue here was their "brilliant" solution -- turn off windows automatic updates.

Anyone see the problem with this "solution"? While it will stop the system from crashing on a weekly basis, now if I manually update I expect it to crash again.. its not a solution but a problem avoidance technique.

I beginning to think the problem is Windows Defender update as that seems to be what was updated yesterday before the system crashed again. Anyone know if Defender updates are known for this problem?

Saturday, September 20, 2008

Fun looking back on finances

Its always interesting to look at the financial prognostications of yesteryear in light of the present.

Take Start Late Finish Rich for example. Itsa a good book and I'm reading it now. Written in 2004 it was a darn good book for the time, full of good advice in lots of ways some of which still hold true, such as not being wasteful in your spending, money management, general targets in terms of how much to save, the importance of tax sheltered retirement accounts, but wow, some of the info:

Such as: the investment return projections are based on 10% annual returns from the stock market - good luck with that. We haven't seen that kind of return in a long time. He also fails to point out that when you have a 50% loss in the market for example, you need a 100% growth to just get back to where you started from.

The real estate advice was great pre-crash but he sure didn't anticipate this mess. His book is full of 0 down mortgages, buying houses for flippage etc. Ie buy it and watch the ridiculous amount of appreciation make you wealthy. The problem is that kind appreciation was anomalous - great if you were doing it then and got out, but otherwise once the music stops you're in trouble. Combine this with banks and mortgagees all doing the same approach on this belief of unsustainable returns as normal, couple it with a little regulatory capture from Freddie Mac and Fannie May and you get the mess we're in now.

Its a good read but the current state of the market and real estate fracas just made large chunks of the book historical curiosities.

The wild vistas of Vista

So after 8 years of my home computer I decide its time to upgrade. The olde computer was built by Scott Reschke of Frag Center (If you're ever in East Lansing and like to play computer games his place is the place to go). It gave great service but lately is developing an atittude and it is getting slow.

Unfortunately he's not building custom machines anymore and he gave me a few suggestions as to what to get.

I end up purchasing an HP Pavilion, AMD Athlon dual core with 4gb ram, 500 GB hard drive and a monitor that came with the package that is ridiculously big in size. Looks nice. It also comes with Vista 64 Home Premium on board. So far so good.

Plug it in and go, and we start having problems:

1. Adobe flash player if installed as a plugin to Firefox 3.0.1, or even downloaded direct from Adobe's website and then installed crashes Vista completely - we're talking the black screen of death, Vista repair runs and removes it and the computer restarts. This was not a fluke as I tried it multiple times and same result each time - install flash player and the computer gets it. Interestingly, and weirdly enough, flash player exists and works just fine in IE with no ill effects and it is not removed in the repair. Since I really like Firefox, this is a major annoyance.

2. Thunderbird - Vista seems to pluck Thunderbird's feathers, I install it, copy over the mail, and it looks like its working, after some tweaking. I then upgrade Thunderbird from 0.7.2 to the latest version and it stops working cold. Still have not resolved this one and my mail archive is stuck in it, which is not good.

3. Vista 64 is not backward compatible with a lot of my programs - my old, paid off, lovingly functional Photoshop 7 and Premiere 6.5 will not work so I'm going to eventually have to buy replacements for what was some darn nice and comfy software, and I hesitate to try and install my old reliable Microsoft Office 2000.
Thankfully Canon is on the ball and their camera software has an upgrade you can download as the software that comes with the SD1000 flips out on Vista 64, so that critical bit works for the pictures at least.

4. Every so often Vista does an automatic update of some Microsoft Vista or related product in the background and without notice, the machine restarts and bamn - back to the black screen of death with a required manual shutdown, windows repair and it sometimes repairs it and sometimes it takes everything short of lethal force to get it back to rights. I can find no log entries of these errors so it is a pain to track down what is causing it. In short this operating system is way less stable that XP and that is simply unacceptable and aggravating.

On the upside:

A. It is much, much faster than my old machine. I can actually multitask without slowing everything to a crawl. Working with video I've shot is a lot quicker. There is a real speed difference and it seems to handle memory leacks much better.

B. Installation of hardware is real nice, great ability to pull drivers, my Suunto Vyper Dive computer USB cable was recognized no problem, which is a huge improvement over the install process for it in XP. Wireless setup is a snap, adding peripherals like the camera, USB Hard drive is similarly easy etc, they've clearly improved the driver architecture.

C. Most of my applications and data transferred over with no issues.

So its a toss up. The lack of stability is the real killer though and certainly adds to the discomfort level as you never know for sure that when you turn it off you can get it back on again. If it was stable with a few issues is one thing, the instability however is not giving me warm feelings toward Vista 64.

Sunday, September 07, 2008

Democrats Panicking over Palin

McCain made an inspired choice when he selected Sarah Palin as his Vice Presidential candidate.

In one fell swoop he energized Republicans and made them excited about the campaign, after being unenthusiastic having McCain the ultra-moderate in charge. He not only succeeded in exciting Republicans and naming a very capable first woman as the first vice presidential candidate of the two major parties, but he also was able to have the Democrats collectively and figuratively wet their pants in panic.

An erudite, capable, conservative and Republican woman? suddenly Barack's "safe" and uninspired choice of business-as-democrat-usual Joe Biden lost its appeal and any gains Biden brought to the ticket were well and truly blasted away. Democrats see the race, which is by any reasoned analysis theirs to lose, beginnning to well, lose.

This of course brought out a series of quite nasty attacks on Palin.

One of the stranger attacks was brought by Michigan Governor Granholm's husband Dan Mulhern after stating "This girl is going to go through a lot and does she know what she's putting her family through". -- The old women with kids should stay at home canard -- brought to you by a Democrat no less. And not just any Democrat -- as noted by Michigan Republican chair Saul Anuzis "One wonders if Dan Mulhern forgot the fact that he's only got a job because he's married to the governor, who also happens to be a working mom," Michigan GOP chairman Saul Anuzis said. Oops. Its funny that it is the Republicans that are "breaking the glass ceiling" so to speak and the Dems, the self-proclaimed party of feminism that is coming forth with all the old chauvinist remarks.

For a darn good analysis of the reasons why the Dems are losing it over Palin. See this article by Victor Davis Hanson (who not only is a great commentator but is a fantastic classical historian -- if you like ancient history his books are must-read material) -- Works and Days: Target Palin.

This election just got interesting.

Friday, September 05, 2008

How em-Bear-rasing!

It must suck to be a pot-grower, especially in this situation. You put all that time into developing a major pot growing operation and a Black bear chases you away. Dude . . . . . (Must have been a Boulder U student pot growing operation):
Black bear busts secret Utah pot farm
Investigators say a large black bear raided a clandestine marijuana growing operation so often that it chased the grower away.
...
Deputies found food containers ripped apart and strewn everywhere, cans with bear teeth marks, claw marks and bear prints across the Garfield County camp on Tuesday.

...the operation on Boulder Mountain included 4,000 "starter" sacks of pot and 888 young plants.

"This particular bear apparently was not going to give up and basically chased these marijuana farmers away," (Sheriff) Perkins said. "Our county is so tough on drugs that even the wildlife are getting in on the action."


Apparently that Bear now has a serious case of the munchies....

Monday, September 01, 2008

Labor Day Weekend Saturday - Wreck Dives

On Saturday we awoke at 4:30 and piled in the car and were on the road by 5.

After stopping at an open diner in a small town on the way for a filling breakfast we drove into port Sanilac and the marina nice an early .

Once again we went with Rec and Tec Dive Charters - simply the best.

We first dove the North Star. A steel steamship that was 300' long. It was built in 1888 in Cleveland, OH. The ship is in two pieces but lies in an upright position. The pilot house is intact. The wreck is located about 5.5 miles SE of Port Sanilac and 10 miles NE of Lexington. The ship sank in 1908, after a collision with its sister ship the Northern Queen.

Visibility was bad, about 10 feet or so for this dive and my camera does not yet have external strobes so the pictures did not come out well at all.

Lagniappe's Keeper had a little issue and we had to break the dive off early and get back to the boat. A nice wreck and I hope to return again when there is better visibility to truly appreciate its enormity.

After a surface interval we went to the Regina. I had first dove the Regina earlier in the year.

This time we had company on the wreck -


Quite a few other dive boats came by to dive the wreck and after our surface interval we headed on down.

The visibility was considerably worse than it was back in May, again about 10-20 feet or so. There was also a nice current flowing from the stern towards the bow so getting back to the boat anchored on the stern (by the rudder for you non-nautical types out there) after the dive took a bit of work.

The dive however was worth it.

Here's Lagniappe's Keeper by the wondefully huge propellor and rudder of the ship.


Here he is right above the rudder -


A porthole by the stern -


We also checked out the huge smokestack lying beside the ship and peeered into the great crack in the ship's hull.

Here I am hanging out -


After making our way kicking back to the stern thought the very visible current (particles in the water were really flying by, sadly opposite to the direction we wanted to go) we did our nice slow ascent and returned on board without incident. A great way to end the day.

Simply an excellent couple of wreck dives,Rec and Tec has never disappointed yet. On the charter we met some very nice divers from the Ford Sea Lancers Dive Club that had the other 8 of ten spots on this trip. A good bunch of divers to be in the water alongside with.

Then the long trip back to my house for a festive BBQ with the family and folks.

Labor Day Weekend Friday

Took off work early as Lagniappe's Keeper came into town from far off West Virginia.

This meant it would be a weekend of shooting, diving, drinking and general catching up.

Lagniappe's Keeper brought his toys with him:

Yes we got to shoot the 1919, and there was much rejoicing, as well as bullets whizzing downrange and copious gunsmoke. His malfunctioning dehumidifier suffered the wrath of 30-06. At the range someone had thoughtfully left some kevlar armor panels, and they impressively actually did hold up against machinegun fire quite nicely from about a hundred yards away --- for awhile -- which was quite impressive. Eventually however it succumbed and will plague him no more, indeed the dehumidifier ended up well air conditioned.

I had my Uzi and took my new CMMG AR15 with my new Meprolight reflex sight out for the first time. The Meprolight reflex is simply amazing. It is Israeli designed, and it shows. All you do is put the dot on the target and it is hit. Quick target acquisition, excellent accuracy and my first serious optic -- Highly recommended.

Lagniappe's keeper also brough this new #5 MK1 Jungle Carbine, which was lots of fun to shoot and proved to be a nice handy accurate rifle firing the powerful 303 British cartridge.

Of course all that shooting meant a lot of cleaning so once home we cleaned the rifles well, while sipping upon adult beverages and watching Season 1 of Burn Notice - a real good show.

Lots of fun and then we prepped for the wreck dives set for Saturday.

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

The Unthinkable - A vital book worth thinking about

Amanda Ripley's book The Unthinkable: Who Survives When Disaster Strikes - and Why is a very readable, and very important book indeed.

The book discusses human reactions to disaster scenarios, and the effect these reactions have to survival in a disaster situation.

The book goes through multiple historical disasters - fires. floods, plane crashes, terorrist attacks and analyze ordinary people's response to the events.

An interesting analysis is her writing on why it takes so long for people to evacuate from dangerous ocations such as a fire or plane crash. Human activity, combined with a lack of training and education of the general public for what to do in such an event explains it.

General human response when untrained to a sudden disaster is to mill around and get confirmation from others that it is happening and generally slowly react to the situation. Of course this is the wrong thing to do, but that's how it works.

I can confirm that reaction is darn slow, and I reacted exactly as she describes in her book - the wrong way.

At work earlier this year the fire alarm went off.

Did all of us immediately move towards the exits and get out of the building? (the right thing to do if there is a fire).

Nope, we milled around, exactly as Ms. Ripley describes others reacting in her book, conferring with each other to see if it was real or not.

Then most of us went to our offices and gathered some belongings - again exactly as she describes how most people would react.

Given that I actually smelled smoke I got out of there faster than most (but still relatively glacially slow), meeting the firemen going in as I was going out.

Many others came out long after the very small fire in a downstairs office was put out. Thankfully it was not a real disaster and was very contained, but it certainly could have been lots worse.

The firm had not conducted a full-scale fire drill before and we still do not practice one.

After reading the book I'm now a bit better educated and prepared and the next time the fire alarm rings -- I'm outta here quick and will tell co-workers its time to go as well.

Ms. Ripley properly castigates the lack of real education the public is given regarding disaster preparedness. Apparently the government and others (for example the airlines in regards to airplane evacuations) do not want us really informed as they think we'll panic. The problem is that panic occurs when you do not know what to do. Informing the public about disaster preparedness and effective reactions to disasters will most likely save a lot of lives. In dealing with a fire for example you don't want to waste time searching for the stairs if you're on an upper floor - you should know where they are and where the alternate exits are.

As an aside, there's an interesting disaster quiz that can be taken at the NY Times, and much of the info it contains seems drawn from Ripley's book.

The Unthinkable: Who Survives When Disaster Strikes - and Whyis well written and very well worth reading, after all the life saved as a result may be your own or your loved ones.

Friday, August 15, 2008

Portage Quarry Dive Report and Video

Last Sunday, Jerry and I went to Portage Quarry in Ohio where we met up with his friends Gary and his daughter Erika, two new scuba divers, we did a total of four practice dives, just working on skills and trying to get the kinks out.

In short I generally looked pretty terrible the whole time but got some on video and at least know what is wrong, how to fix it is a whole other question but I will keep working on it.

Thankfully Jerry got a little bit of video of me looking at least slightly acceptable:



Jerry of course has a much better control in the water than I:


All in all, not a bad bit of practice, and a fun way to spend a Sunday.

Thursday, August 07, 2008

Mexican Troops cross into US and temporarily hold Border Patrol Agent

Apparently they failed to stop and ask for directions.

Mexican Soldiers Enter Arizona, Briefly Detain Border Agent
TUCSON, Ariz. — Four Mexican soldiers crossed into Arizona and held a U.S. Border Patrol agent at gunpoint before realizing where they were and returning to Mexico, federal authorities said Wednesday.

The confrontation occurred early Sunday on the Tohono O'odham Indian Reservation, about 85 miles southwest of Tucson, in an area fenced only with barbed wire, said Dove Crawford, a spokeswoman for the Border Patrol.

The soldiers, outfitted in desert camouflage, pointed their rifles at the agent and shouted at him not to move, Crawford said. They lowered their weapons after about four minutes when the agent convinced them of who he was and where they were, she said. The soldiers then retreated into Mexico.
. . .
State Department spokesman Gonzalo Gallegos in Washington said the encounter "stemmed from a momentary misunderstanding as to the exact location of the U.S.-Mexican border."


You would think Mexican troops would be a little bit more careful about their location, not to mention pointing weapons at US Agents. On the other hand, given our lack of a no-nonsense response to these continuing indignities they must fiugure they can get away with it.

Islamists trying to prod a sleeping Dragon

Never a smart idea, that.

Chinese Islamic Group Threatens Attack at Beijing Olympics
That would be rather a short-sighted and likely life-shortening move. Given that China and its rulers would suffer a severe loss of face if such an attack took place, and given that China is not so constrained by human rights concerns as in the west, such an attack could lead to the Dragon awakening and putting a severe smack-down on Muslims in its territory.

Indeed such an attack may even cause China to reconsider its close relationships with Sudan, Iran and other Muslim countries that it is currently using to develop a counter-balance to the USA as China starts playing the great power game.

Detroit Mayor off to the slammer for violating his bond

Kwame Kilpatrick gets to spend some time with some of his constituents - up close and personal.

FoxNews:Detroit mayor ordered jailed after bond violation

This was his second bond violation and it led to the Judge, quite properly, ordering some jail time.

The problem with people in powerful positions is that they think they do not have to abide by the rules laid out for everyone. That belief leads them to do rather stupid things - in Kwame's case violating the terms of his bond order.

Now hizzoner the Mayor will get some privileges due to his exalted public status - a separate cell and not being introduced into the general population of the jail. Given the charges pending against him, he may want to get used to it.

Wednesday, August 06, 2008

Now that's arrogance

Apparently it really runs in the Kilpatrick family.

In the primaries, it seems that Congresswoman Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick won her primary race, not by the majority of votes, but by having the good fortune (or good planning) to have two opponents splitting the vote against her.

The Detroit News: Kilpatrick declares victory in 13th District race; rival Waters doesn't concede

With 39% of the Democrat vote in the Primary in her favor statement is rather breathtaking:
"I will be your congresswoman ... until I decide to retire," Kilpatrick told supporters just before 1 a.m.
Not "For as long as you want me", Not "as long as i can serve you" but She said "until I decide to retire". Given that its a lock-box Democrat district, she's probably right that she is a "Congresswoman-for life". But the arrogance is quite revealing.

Now we know where Kwame gets it from....

Tuesday, August 05, 2008

Voted in the Primary Today

Yes, today was Michigan's State Primary.

So I went off to vote.

As a Democrat.

What happened I hear you asking? The reason being in the Township where I live is currently run by Democrats, and two of them are pushing an unconstitutional ordinance that would severely curtail riparian rights and access to the lakes by non-shoreline owners that have easement access or jointly owned boat launches.

This is of course a retroactive taking that is quite unconstitutional, and they are doing it at the behest of a developer that happens to have some nice waterfront property and doesn't want others to access the lakes, especially not the people who have an easement that is beside his property.

Of course the ordinance as proposed doesn't just affect the few people who have an access easement beside his property - it would affect the entire township, including my subdivisions jointly-owned boat basin and launch and basically legislate it out of existence.

Thus are the politics of pull played with the little tinpot Democrat officials working at the behest of the few wealthy squeaky wheels (or in this case the one) and by result trampling over everyone's property rights. So much for being the party of the common man against the rich (Did anyone really believe that?)

As such I needed to vote against these two proponents and the best way was to vote for their competitors in the primary. With luck they've annoyed enough other people that this might work, and we'll end up with better (or at least more careful) township government.

After voting I left the booth and was feeling a little strange.

I immediately felt an urge to vote to raise taxes on everyone else.....

I got better though.

UPDATE: Apparently they both annoyed a lot of people. Both were handily beaten by their opponents -- One by 63% and the other by 64%. Hopefully their successors got the message.

Monday, August 04, 2008

Firefly for $17.99

If you haven't heard, or checked the left side of the screen on this blog, Amazon.com is having a nice sale for the Firefly complete 4 disc series. That's a good 64% off the regular price.

Since everyone should own a copy of this fine show, if only to enjoy it in all its greatness while lamenting how Fox messed up and mis-showed it and then canceled it before its time, go ahead and buy it if you don't have it already.

You won't be disappointed, except for the knowledge that there is no Second Season.....