Showing posts with label How To Lie With Statistics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label How To Lie With Statistics. Show all posts

Sunday, April 06, 2025

Worst Genocide Ever - Hamas Actual Casualty Figures Get Reduced Yet Again

Hamas' Health Ministry just revised its casualty figures yet again.

Israel Hayom: Study exposes: Hamas 'quietly' erases thousands of deaths from Gaza death toll

Yahoo News/The Telegraph: Hamas ‘quietly drops’ thousands of deaths from casualty figures

The result is rather interesting.  In short Hamas has been lying yet again about casualty rates and even more importantly who the casualties are in Gaza.

With this revision, instead of the casualties being 70% women and children as falsely claimed by Hamas' Health Ministry, and believed by the gullible around the world, the new percentage when looking at the revised Hamas' Health Ministry stats is that 72% of casualties are males of Hamas combatant age. 

Funny, that.

In short, even Hamas' own stats are showing that Israel is not only not committing a "genocide"  but also that the civilian casualty rate is again lower than claimed by Hamas and they're caught lying- yet again.

Don't expect the media and those who have been reporting and believing Hamas' lies to apologize for such anytime soon, nor to be at least a tad bit skeptical before reporting claims from Hamas as credible.  It's clearly too much to as news agencies to state when they republish Hamas' casualty claims that Hamas has been caught making these casualty figures up multiple times now.

Friday, February 14, 2025

Inflation Isn't Rearing It's Ugly Head Again, It's Just Being Actually Accurately Reported Again

Right on time for President Trump to take office, the data now shows inflation increasing.

Reason: Trump May Have To Grapple with Returning Inflation

We will note that Reason, an ostensibly libertarian publication is no friend of Trump.  Verily, Reason seems to be having vapors about his actually reducing the size, scope, and spending of government - something you would think a libertarian would cheer for, neh?

One would think so, but no. Basically Reason at this point is all about marijuana legalization and wide open borders, and damn little else. 

It is not "returning inflation", instead it is that inflation is now being reported accurately again after the books have been cooked and the data tortured the past four years.

Politico: How Democrats Were Tricked Into Believing the Economy Was Strong

The Democrats, pace Politico, weren't being "Tricked" -- they were the ones running the trick.  

The Biden-run government agencies were the ones massaging the data and running the scam under reporting inflation and messing with job statistics to give the picture of a rosy economy under Biden that wasn't. 

The Biden Administration and the media establishment (But I'm repeating myself) had been busy boasting and talking up how wonderful the economy under Biden has been, how Biden achieved a "soft landing" and  try to give him a boost for his reelection and then for Harris when even the massaged stats couldn't get him to the finish line.

The administration and media both made themselves busy asking Americans - "Who are going to believe Biden and the Media, or your own lyin' eyes?"

Now that Biden is out, the stats are being reported, presumably more accurately, just in time for President Trump to have to deal with the results of the massive overspending and effects of the policies Biden has left behind. 

The Fed's decision on setting interest rates - including reducing them right before the election which just so happened to assist Biden, was doing so based on the statistics being manipulated.  

The deliberate false reporting of government statistics,  statistics relied upon to set economic policy, should be seen as one of the greatest scandals of the Biden era.  

Perhaps one day it will be.

Friday, February 07, 2025

Every. Single. Time. Yet Again.

Surprising no one, President Biden's final jobs report was "revised" downward - yet again joining every other one of the Bureau of Labor employment statistics reports.

Revised downwards. Every. Damn. Time. 

That simply cannot be a happy coincidence.

Legal Insurrection: January Jobs Report: 2024 Employment Revised Down by 600,000

Well, at least it's not the 818,000 fewer jobs than first reported the last time around, but over counting by 600,000 is one heckuva statistical error.

Yet again, these stats aren't just bad because they let Biden trumpet a healthy economy and jobs market that simply wasn't there - in an election year no less.

A major problem when you cook the books on these reports is people do rely upon them.  For example the Fed, when considering adjusting interest rates relies on this report, among others. and in such reliance is not cutting rates probably as much as they should as they think the economy is growing just fine.  Unfortunately the economy under Biden was presented as being much better than it was due to these cooked statistics.

Wednesday, October 16, 2024

Can You Trust Any Statistic From The Biden-Harris Administration?

If the true statistic would make them look bad, the answer is clearly no.

We've seen the Bureau of Labor Statistics under Biden-Harris release, with great fanfare numbers showing job growth, and then the job numbers are quietly revised. Downward.  Every time, in some cases by 800,000 jobs after the good news is announced.

Now so too with the FBi and violent crime stats.

The FBI reported crime was down 2.1%, to benefit Democrats,

It has now quietly revised that decline to a 4.5% increase, which is quite a major and a notable increase.  Missed it by that much, I suppose,

Real Clear Investigations: Stealth Edit: FBI Quietly Revises Violent Crime Stats.

Wednesday, August 21, 2024

Surprise! (Not!) BLS Does Yet Another Huge Downward Jobs Revision

Throughout President Biden's term in office, the Bureau of Labor Statistics are released with great fanfare showing job growth, and then the job numbers are quietly revised. Downward, Every single time.

Now, the latest downward revision is a doozy.

Legal Insurrection:Biden/Harris Jobs Success Was Fake – 818,000 Downward Revision Announcement 

On Wednesday morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced a preliminary benchmark revision to the number of nonfarm payrolls from April 2023 through March 2024. According to the report, the number of new jobs added to the economy during this period was revised downward by 818,000.

That's the biggest downward revision during the Biden Administration yet. Indeed it is the biggest revision in 15 years.

That the BLS has clearly been politicized to loudly announce job growth happy-talk so it can be trumpeted by Biden et al, and then quietly walked back to make the Biden Administration look good is pretty much beyond question at this point. 

One major problem is the false statistics of such job growth made the Fed think it needed to keep interest rates up to fight inflation and the rate increases were not hurting the economy as jobs were still being created in record numbers defying normal expectaitons.  But they were not.

How to Lie With Statistics (a book everyone should read or at least listen to on Audible to become a better critical thinker IMHO) is not supposed to be a how-to manual. 

The Biden Administration just seems to outright and repeatedly lie about job growth statistics. What other statistics (cough, inflation!, cough) are they also cooking the books on?

Thursday, May 16, 2024

Hamas And The Big Lie

I've noted before how Hamas is falsely inflating its casualty statistics.

Their stats were statistically highly suspect, going up in a practically perfect linear fashion, and do not distinguish between combatants and non-combatants. 

Now even the UN has caught up and finally owned up to the fact that Hamas' Health ministry is making it up as they go along:  

USA Today: United Nations cuts estimate for deaths of women and children in Gaza in half

Still, the false figure persists in news reports and op eds parroting the false number and using it to vilify Israel.

Verily, the pro-Hamas propaganda goes round the world which the truth is still lacing up its boots.

Thursday, April 11, 2024

Hamas Health Ministry Admits Their Casualty Numbers Are "Flawed"

The credulous and anti-Israel world takes Hamas Health Ministry causality reports as gospel.

Even though this is the same Hamas-run Health Ministry that outright lied about the casualty count when the Hamas rocket hit the Al Shifa Hospital parking lot (500 claimed when they tried to pin it on Israel when in reality it was less than 50).  The same Hamas-run Health Ministry whose casualty reporting is statistically rather suspect - with casualty numbers that increase perfectly linearly daily throughout the conflict.

Well, the Hamas Health Ministry just admitted they have some flaws.  As in a lot of flaws, as in massively overstating casualties sort of flaws.

FDD: Hamas-Run Gaza Health Ministry Admits to Flaws in Casualty Data

The Hamas-run Gaza Ministry of Health said on April 6 that it had “incomplete data” for 11,371 of the 33,091 Palestinian fatalities it claims to have documented. In a statistical report, the ministry notes that it considers an individual record to be incomplete if it is missing any of the following key data points: identity number, full name, date of birth, or date of death. The health ministry also released a report on April 3 that acknowledged the presence of incomplete data but did not define what it meant by “incomplete.” In that earlier report, the ministry acknowledged the incompleteness of 12,263 records. It is unclear why, after just three more days, the number fell to 11,371 — a decrease of more than 900 records.

Prior to its admissions of incomplete data, the health ministry asserted that the information in more than 15,000 fatality records had stemmed from “reliable media sources.” However, the ministry never identified the sources in question and Gaza has no independent media.

In other words, potentially half of the 33,000 Health Ministry reported casualties that the Arabs and the world uses to claim Israel is committing "genocide" may be entirely made up propaganda by the Health Ministry.

This would reduce Israel's terrorist to civilian death ration to below 1:0.5 from the current 1:1.8.

Global average ratio of terrorist to civilian death in urban combat is around 1:9, with the US military being  around 1:5 or 1:7 by comparison.

In short, Israel is likely now running the most civilian-safe intense urban combat campaign in recorded history - against an enemy using civilians as human shields, deliberately emplacing itself and fighting from civilian locations, and providing no shelters for the civilian population.  

The Islamists and their fellow travelers claims of genocide in this conflict are simply so much bushwah, and should be treated as such.  Those making such claims are either an outright pro-Hamas idiot or just a credulous idiot - pick one.

Anyone that claims there is a "Gazacaust" or "genocide" occurring in Gaza needs to go find the nearest tree and apologize for being a waste of oxygen.

Monday, January 08, 2024

Every. Single. Time.

Yet again, continuing what has been the case since the reporting began under the Biden Administration, the Bureau of Labor's employment numbers are being yet again revised downwards after their initial happy result.

The New York Post: Initial US employment reports overstated by 439,000 jobs in 2023

This overstatement has occurred Every. Single. Time. the Bureau of Labor has released employment statistics under Biden.  The original happy pronouncements of job creation on the report, which Biden & Co is quick to take credit for, and which gets published widely, gets quietly walked back on a slow news day and revised downwards, by a significant amount.

That every single time the initial reports come out with a higher number than the corrected reality, with the correction published without any fanfare, and typically on a slow news Friday afternoon shows this is unlikely to be an honest mistake. 

In short, the Bureau of Labor's employment numbers under Biden have been politicized and are quite simply statistically unreliable. When all "mistakes" made in a series only go one way, that's a pretty sharp indication it;s not a mistake at all.

This is rather problematic as those politicized numbers are not just there give a false impression that things are going great, they are used to set policy, including by the Fed to adjust (and likely raise based on these false reports of rising employment) interest rates based on believing the economy is growing more than it actually is doing.

Monday, November 28, 2022

You Can Bet This Incident Will be Recorded As A "School Shooting"

Fox 2 Detroit: 3 suspects sought by Detroit police after Henry Ford High School students shot in ambush

Two students were both struck in a drive-by shooting outside Henry Ford High School in Detroit Monday afternoon in what police say is a targeted attack.

Chief James White said the injuries were not life-threatening, however, but victims were struck twice during the attack. Three suspects are now sought in the ambush.

"We know who we're looking for," said Detroit Police Chief James White.

          .     .      .

"We are looking for three African-American males possibly all three wearing masks," White said. "No one else is at risk it appears to be an isolated incident, (a result) of a conflict that groups were having.

It looks like T-Dog, Jr. and Ray-Ray, Jr., while turning their lives around, ticked off a rival gang that decided to do some drive-by payback as conflict resolution.   Since the police know who they are looking for, I expect the criminals involved will have prior records, if not gun-owning disqualifying felonies. To no one's surprise, said criminals will have been somehow free to drive around the streets and obtain firearms to commit crimes.

Unfortunately, being on/near school grounds, various anti-gun organizations and the media will consider and record this a "school shooting" (note the handy statistics site linked, that is often referenced by the media, et al  considers an event a :"school shooting" even if no one is shot, and even counts an event as a "school shooting" when a firearm is not even discharged) rather than a gang-related crime of violence independent of a school as a reason for the shooting, and add it to their misleading statistics.

Thursday, May 19, 2022

ADL Issues A Biased Report, Leftists And New York Times Eat It Up

The ADL has unfortunately strayed far from their task of fighting anti-antisemitism.  

They've fallen to O'Sullivans First Law:“All organizations that are not actually right-wing will over time become left-wing.”

Indeed the ADL has departed drastically form their core purpose and  The Anti-Defamation League Is Now a Tool of the Anti-Semitic Left.

The ADL just released a report claiming the majority of political violence is from the Right Wing.

 Of course the NY Times uncritically ate it up: The Right's Violence Problem.

In reading the ADL report, it sadly has a rather driven agenda and has at least one  rather glaring and blatant error on their executive summary page and throughout their report that makes their stats rather suspect.

"Most of the murders (26 of 29) were committed by right-wing extremists, which is usually the case. However, two killings were committed by Black nationalists and one by an Islamist extremist—the latter being the first such killing since 2018."

Considering 6 people were murdered by the Black Nationalist Extremist at Waukeesha in 2021, and yet they apparently decide to not even count that attack in their totals at all. 

How many more murders did they exclude to get to their desired result?

Then, you gotta wonder how they played with the numbers they had left, to shift them right so to speak, in order to decide what was and was not an "extremist murder". So how did they massage the numbers to get where they wanted to go?  We don't know.

Not to mention how they decide to classify a particular murdered as right or left wing can also be suspect.

Further if you take the time to read the report, it appears that some of what they decided were "extremist murders seem to be rather hinky and without any linkage to an ideological basis.  In one case they listed, they decide that a white nutcase who killed a white husband and white wife with no known ideological reason for the murders, is counted as an extremist murder.  Imagine counting every murder by a Black BLM supporter of a Black person as an extremist murder, the count would likely shift - a lot.


In short, it is not a useful nor an unbiased study at all.

Violence from the extremist Right is a problem, as is violence from the extremist Left - which has been growing by leaps and bounds and did about a Billion in damage to our cities recently. 

Here the ADL is deliberately downplaying and ignoring, if not outright covering up Leftist violence for political points.

It also gets interesting in terms of classification as the recent Buffalo shooter self-identified in his nutso manifesto as Left-Wing but is being classified as Right-Wing by the left.   So did a Left-Wing extremist just kill 10 people in Buffalo?  How will it be treated in their next report?

It's too bad we can't get an honest and unbiased study on the problem, as this surely isn't one.