On Civillian Casualties In Urban Combat

Quite a number of ignorant people are complaining and falsely alleging Israel is inflicting "genocide" in Gaza based on the civilian casualties as a result of urban combat against Hamas. 

Urban combat unfortunately by its very nature leads to civilian casualties because that's where civilians are. Even under the best of circumstances, civilians often become collateral casualties of an urban battle.

Remember that Hamas is a foe that not only refuses to provide shelters for its civilians that it governs, but actively hides behind them using civilians as human shields and commits acts of perfidy by fighting from hospitals, mosques, schools, and UNRWA buildings - and then complaining about the resultant civilian casualties.

The critics of Israel point to the Gaza Health Ministry's claim without even a hint of skepticism, that 28,000 Gazans have been killed -  a number that includes combatants on the Hamas side as the GHM does not differentiate between combatants and civilians in their numbers - which is rather convenient for them.  The world accepts this number without any skepticism.

This, by the way, is the same Gaza Health Ministry that claimed 500 people were killed when an Islamic Jihad rocket landed in a hospital parking lot and they tried to blame Israel for it, claiming the entire hospital had been destroyed. The actual casualty count was probably around 100.  So you can likely divide the current estimate of 28,000 by 5 and you may get the actual casualty count.

Meanwhile, Israel has stated they have killed 10,000 Hamas fighters.  Assuming we accept the GHM number of 28,000 total casualties that means there were 18,000 Gazan civilians dead in the war so far.

This gives a ratio of 1:1.8 terrorists to civilians killed in this war.

 Israel has lost 422 service personnel in the war so far.

So let's do a comparison to another recent battle in an urban environment against a well entrenched terrorist group - The Battle of Mosul in 2016/2017.

Thew battle pitted US and allied forces, including the United Kingdom,  Iraqi Army, and others on one side and ISIS and friends on the other, with similar actions by ISIS to that of Hamas of using civilians as human shields and using protected structures to fight in violation of the laws of war.  

The casualty count in Mosul was:

Allied service personnel killed: 1,235. 

ISIS terrorists killed: 7,577-10,859

Civilians Killed: 40,000 (using the Arab estimate which again are likely inflated to a similar proportion of the GHM's estimates, in this case  it is potentially 4 times higher than the more reliable sources' reports of  9,000-11,000).

This gives a ratio of 1:5.2 terrorists to civilians killed on the low estimate of 7,577 ISIS terrorists killed or 1:3.8 terrorists to civilians killed on the higher end of 10,859 ISIS terrorists killed.

In short, even if we believe the inflated numbers coming out of the GHM, Israel is causing less than half the proportion of civilian casualties killed in urban combat than the lower of the two ratios, and doing a whole lot better with almost three times less the comparative ration of dead civilian casualties to dead terrorists than the higher ratio of civilians to terrorists killed in Mosul. 

Israel is killing far fewer civilians for every terrorist killed than the US & Co did in Mosul, by a lot and no one accused the US of committing genocide in Mosul or being "over the top" in its actions.

It's not genocide, it's instead sadly the byproduct of urban combat against an enemy that instead of protecting civilians hides behind them and uses them to up the casualty count.  

Credulous fools, including Biden, all should know better.

Does Detroit Have More Registered Voters Than Population Actually Eligible To Vote?

It certainty appears so.

Per the City of Detroit Election Website, there were 508,535 Detroiters registered to vote for the 2022 election.

The total population of Detroit per the 2020 census is 672,351 and the current census population estimate for 2021 is 632,464.

Of that population,  the census has 32% of the population under the age of 18. Hence that 32% of the population is ineligible to be registered to vote.

That would imply that around 202,388 of the population is too young to vote. Even if we ignore the 2021 estimate and pretend the population didn't change at all from 2020 that would make 215,152 people ineligible to vote.

That would imply the total pool of people in Detroit eligible to register to voter is 430,076, or if you believe the population hasn't declined even a bit since 2020, a total of 457,199.

Anyone see the issue?

Even if Detroit managed to register 100% of those eligible to vote, which would be quite an unlikely feat of efficiency indeed, there should be 78,459 or 51,336 less voters on the voting rolls than there are currently.

Interestingly, even after losing population since 2020,  Detroit now has more registered voters.  The registered voter total in 2020 was 504,714.

So Detroit both lost population and yet increased the number of registered voters from 2020, yet even if the population remained the same since 2020 the city has at least, statistically speaking, 51,336 more registered voters now than the population should be able to provide.

While not proof of fraud, this does indicate Detroit needs a serious clean-up of their voter registration rolls. Having between 51,336-78,459 more registered voters than people who are actually eligible to vote certainly provides the means and opportunities for shenanigans to take place. 

Given our re-elected Secretary of State's refusal to clean up voter rolls in this state, don't expect that to happen anytime soon.

How To Mislead With Statistics - New England Journal Of Medicine And Firearms Edition

You've probably seen the headlines today, echoed and repeated throughout the media along the lines of of:

Firearms surpass motor vehicles as leading cause of death among kids, UM researchers say

Of course, it depends on who you classify as "kids".  In order to get away with this misleading statement designed to cause panic and a demand for someone to do something, you have to play with the numbers a bit.  

The analysis, based on Centers for Disease Control mortality data from 2020 and published last week in the New England Journal of Medicine, showed that firearm-related deaths among children and adolescents age 1 to 19 increased 29% from 2019 to 2020.

Yep, they're doing the 18-year-olds and 19-year-olds are children when it comes to death by firearm.

Interestingly enough, that age range is how the CDC classifies children - but only for firearms death. For example for drowning deaths the age range for "children" per the CDC is from zero to 17. It doesn't include 18 or 19 because for drowning, that's an adult.

This is most likely due to most firearm deaths and especially murders being in the 18-19 year old prime criminal cohort, so the numbers can make it appear that children are being murdered.

The study linked to fails to breakdown deaths by age range, so we can't see what the death rate is if we exclude the 18 and 19 year old adults from the mix. But interestingly enough does look deaths of the 0-19 age range by race and the result is completely unsurprising.  It shows the vast majority are male Blacks a -- trend that has remained the same in 2019 and 2020 and with more than double the mortality of anyone else, and while hard to be sure, practically equal to or more than all other races put together. 

Black male mortality by firearms also shows the largest increase in 2020 which matches the current crime wave in Democrat-run cities after the BLM movement and soft-on-crime prosecutors have had their way.

Using 18 and 19 year old death stats to pump up "child deaths" is both painfully dishonest and manipulative, especially as gun deaths seem to be the only death that gets this extra boost to pump up the "kid death" numbers.  Of course the study calls for more funding - for more biased BS studies designed for advocacy rather than information.

How about NEJM and CDC re-run the study without the 18 and 19 year olds polluting thew statistics and then let us know what the numbers are, ok?

An Election Is Coming Up - So Let's Change Covid Reporting Methods

In essence, the purpose of statistics is to accurately measure things. 

It becomes rather hard to accurately measure a thing when you change the reporting methods about the thing, making comparisons difficult if not impossible, likely due to an upcoming election.

The Detroit Free Press: Michigan health department to change how it reports COVID data

Starting next week, the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services is changing the way it reports coronavirus data.

It will update Michigan cases and COVID-19 deaths weekly, rather than three times a week, starting April 4 on its website

       . . .

The change in the way the state will report cases and deaths going forward adheres to a national surveillance strategy created by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said Lynn Sutfin, spokesperson for the state health department.

"At this stage in the pandemic, daily updates do not inform policy or contribute to the national surveillance program," Sutfin said. "Many states have also begun to move to less frequent public reporting of data.

Thus causing it to reflect a lagging rather than leading trend and likely end up reporting more cases but less deaths as a result. 

Most  interestingly, they're now going to reduce the number of deaths publicly attributed to Covid as well:

Another change is that the health department will no longer report how many COVID-19 deaths were discovered during a review of vital records.

That's quite a change, as that retrospective review was previously used to pump the death-from-Covid numbers up.

So the numbers will now be adjusted to reduce the numbers of deaths from/with Covid in the run up to the mid-terms, and also deliberately lag in case of an increase in cases.  Our Gov can now announce there are fewer deaths based on these new statistical methods as the midterms approach. 

Now isn't that wonderfully convenient?

So Are They Desperately Serious or Seriously Desperate To Keep A State Of Panic in Play?

What's wrong with this headline from the The Detroit Free Press?

COVID-19 hospitalizations in Michigan surge 800% in March among people 40-49 years old

Well, it lacks a rather key bit of information:  What's the actual number of patients that has increased in this age range by versus the percentage?  After all going from 1 to 8 is an 800% increase but no need to get excited or panic.

The article doesn't say, and in fact instead reports that data, which could provide some definite context to the panic-inducing headline is not being released:

The association did not provide raw data in its release Wednesday. Spokesman John Karasinski told the Free Press that it is prohibited from sharing the raw data because of "data use agreements with our members."

So it could be eight patients or eight hundred but probably far less than that, as per the article, the entire Beaumont health system only has 350 Covid in-patients total, and that's one of the biggest systems in the state.  We don't know, and neither does the author of this piece of journalism.  

Whether done to advocate those in the 40-49 year age group to get vaccinated (which is funny as per the rules, most places are only vaccinating 50 and up right now with some profession exceptions) or just to keep the panic on, its a tad bit of irresponsible subterfuge with statistics  and unsubstantiated panic-mongering.

Record New Covid Deaths In Michigan -- Or In Reality Not So Much

Some statistical sleight of hand and misleading headlines to gin up further fear.

The Detroit News: Michigan sets daily record for COVID-19 deaths

Sounds bad.

 Michigan on Tuesday reported a record 190 deaths tied to COVID-19 and added 5,793 new cases.

Sounds very bad, but then in the very next sentence:

Of the Tuesday deaths, 30 were identified during a delayed records review, the state said.

In other words, there were 160 deaths reported as Covid-19 deaths and then 30 were added after being classified as Covid deaths after they had already died previously.

With the additional records, Tuesday surpassed the previous high for deaths of 164 reached on April 16, at the peak of the pandemic, a day that had no additional reviewed records added.

In other words it did not in fact surpass the previous high as April 16 had 164 deaths without any further being added in.

164 is  greater than 160.  So no, yesterday was not a record.

In short, the headline and lede are rather badly misleading if not outright falsities. 

This seems like part of a push by Gov Half-Whit to extend her 3-week shut down of restaurants and other facilities.

Never mind that the way we count deaths by Covid is misleading in and of itself and different from how other countries do it.  Heck, we've included motorcycle and car crash victims and even people shot to death as dying from Covid 19, causing some rather meaningless comparisons and messy stats.

In short our statistical reporting of this crises has been rather lackluster if not outright garbage at times and rather unreliable.

Figures Lie and Liars Figure - Michigan COVID Numbers Edition

You can't keep a state in crisis mode if the data shows the crisis is being alleviated.

 So to fix that, you change how the figures are collected to shows there's a continuing crisis.

Crains Detroit: Commentary: Michigan's change in COVID-19 hospitalization rates renders past data useless

Timely and reliable data about COVID-19 in Michigan has been the cornerstone justification by Gov. Gretchen Whitmer for just about every one of the restrictions she has placed on the economy, specific businesses and ordinary human movement for the past five months.

That's why a recent change in how the state of Michigan reports the number of COVID-positive patients occupying hospital beds undermines the last five months of data that has shaped Whitmer's extraordinary executive orders and the management of hospitals and nursing homes.

Around Aug. 4, the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services started requiring hospitals to report their daily patient counts for both confirmed cases of COVID-19 and suspected cases.

The newly combined number skews all other previous data about hospitalizations, effectively rendering this key data point utterly useless for comparison purposes over time.

On Aug. 3, the last day that just confirmed cases of COVID-19 were counted, there were 460 people hospitalized for the virus.

As of Friday, the newly combined number of confirmed and suspected cases is 675.

On paper, that would look like a 46 percent increase in hospitalizations in just 11 days. That sounds alarming.

  It does seem alarming, and this on-paper manipulated increase has been used to both justify the continuing restrictions and keep people afraid that the contagion is unchecked and expanding and we need further restrictions as a result to "stop the spread".

Go read the whole thing, and note how deaths and hospitalizations have been on, and continue to be on, a steady decline, calling into question this new impetuous based on these skewed figured for further restrictions or rolling back the easing of restrictions, maintaining this state of emergency and keeping Gov Half-Whit as our unaccountable ruler.

So, About Those 18 "School Shootings" So Far In 2018

So with the bodies still warm in Florida after the latest shooting by someone with known issues, we're again seeing a call for gun control and banning firearms instead of something useful like a proposal for armed guards at school or serious interventions for people who make credible threats of violence and have mental health issuess

Interestingly, I'm seeing the Everytown for Gun Safety claim of there being "18 school shootings so far in 2018" being parroted all over social media.

But when you drill down into the statistics, they're not what most people would think to be actual school shootings.

Instead, Everytown cunningly defines a school shooting as: "The organization defines a school shooting as "any time a firearm discharges a live round inside a school building or on a school campus or grounds." Talk about moving the goalposts on the term.

A pretty good list is found here with descriptions - King 5 News.

You'll note that darn few of the Everytown list are actual "School Shootings" in the classic sense where someone shoots up a school.

At least one is a police officer's negligent discharge when a student was able to trigger it in the officer's holster.

Two are suicides in the parking lot apparently after school hours.

One is drive-by shooting.

One was a pellet gun breaking a school bus window apparently with no one on the bus.

Most occur outside the school building and are the result of fights whether between students actually attending the school or people just happening to be close by.

Most led to no deaths and nine of the Everytown school shootings had no injuries at all.

In other words, Everytown is badly misleading people when they claim there's been a mass of school shootings this year, but then again, you knew that already. The problem of course is the uninformed do not realize this is a confabulated statistic and are panicking thinking this is a massive problem that requires drastic gun-banning solutions.

How To Cry With Statistics - Safe Real Estate Edition

Yet another feel good survey using a methodology so questionable that even the newspaper headline trumpeting it takes pains to point that out.

The Detroit News: Report has flaws but names Detroit safest city from natural disasters

Detroit has been named the safest city in the nation. When it comes to natural disasters anyway. ... “One thing that is problematic about the study is that it only includes the last 10 years,” Thompson said. “It seems to be more of a climatology of weather events over the last 10 years more than a risk assessment. We still have the possibility of tornadoes, hail, strong winds, flooding, and major snowstorms.

This is how the study also concludes that San Francisco is ranked third of the cities safest from natural disasters.

You'll note the study is also silent on man-caused disasters.

Joe Wilson Needs To Take Back His Apology

In yet another revelation of the Obama administration's mendacity.  Vodkapundit notes that even the unemployment statistics prior to Obama's reelection were fabricated to make the economy look better and improve Obama's chances for reelection.

Is there anything that this administration is telling the actual entire truth about?  Anything?

Representative Joe Wilson didn't know the half of it.

Yes, It's The Economy Stupid

And the Economy is not looking good... The Detroit Free Press: Dismal economic news: U.S. added just 69K jobs in May

The U.S. economy suddenly looks a lot weaker.

U.S. employers created only 69,000 jobs in May, the fewest in a year, and the unemployment rate ticked up.

The dismal jobs data will fan fears that the economy is sputtering. It could also damage President Barack Obama's re-election prospects. And it could lead the Federal Reserve to take further steps to help the economy.

The Labor Department also said Friday that the economy created far fewer jobs in the previous two months than first thought. It revised those figures down to show 49,000 fewer jobs created. The unemployment rate rose to 8.2 percent from 8.1 percent in April, the first increase in 11 months.

Folowing the standard Obama Administration pattern of unexpectedly revising economic numbers downward after releasing them and holding the bad news until a Friday of course.

In other words, the stats were off by a claimed 49,000 jobs that weren't really created, which is statistically pretty darn significant.

Expect a continuing pattern of the administration releasing rosy proclamations about the economy and then walking them back under "revisions" that happen on the regular Friday news dump.

President Obama sure as anything can't run on his record with this economy without lying through his teeth.