How To Cry With Statistics - Safe Real Estate Edition

Yet another feel good survey using a methodology so questionable that even the newspaper headline trumpeting it takes pains to point that out.

The Detroit News: Report has flaws but names Detroit safest city from natural disasters

Detroit has been named the safest city in the nation. When it comes to natural disasters anyway. ... “One thing that is problematic about the study is that it only includes the last 10 years,” Thompson said. “It seems to be more of a climatology of weather events over the last 10 years more than a risk assessment. We still have the possibility of tornadoes, hail, strong winds, flooding, and major snowstorms.

This is how the study also concludes that San Francisco is ranked third of the cities safest from natural disasters.

You'll note the study is also silent on man-caused disasters.

San Francisco Day 5 - To The Superb Science Center and A Mediocre Night Bus Tour

For Day Five we got up early and jumped on the Big Bus hop on/hop off tour to go to Golden Gate Park.

The bus dropped us off at the entry to California Academy of Sciences which is located in the park, and after paying the rather steep admission fees we headed in.

With 3 floors and a living roof you can walk along, it's a huge facility with tons to see and do.

As you enter, you first view a Philippine reef site exhbiit, complete with black tip sharks:

Going down the stairs, you can see more of the reef in a viewing area, complete with a diver giving a lecture on the reef's ecosystem:

It's a very neat exhibit, and the Water Planet area comes complete with a touching pool where the kids (and adults) can pet starfish and sea urchins and you can see lots of different fish and marine life, including a tunnel you could walk through with fish swimming all around:

The living roof was interesting if you're into that sort of thing. Here's a view of the solar panels on the roof, surrounded by the grasses covering the rooftop, that they proudly proclaim as 18% efficient!:

Earthquakes are obviously an area of special scientific concern in California. We saw a very cool planetarium show on earthquakes and went on the earthquake simulator which was very cool as it replicated the feel of being in a house in both the 1906 and 1989 Earthquakes. Interestingly enough, after the simulator we got to talking with a lady near the exit and it turns out not only was she living there during the 1989 Loma-Prieta earthquake and he r house was damaged in the quake, but she had moved to California from West Bloomfield and had lived only a few blocks from where we are now - quite a small world.

Of course, there had to be snakes:

From this Anaconda:

To these very large Timber Rattlers. The one nearest the glass followed anyone who approached very intently and pretty clearly indicated that if that glass wasn't there he'd be merrily biting the hell out of the visitors to the center.

There was also a multi-tiered rainforest exhibit with yes, more snakes, including the flying snake that was kept behind glass.

We also got a chance to meet the star of the Center, Claude the Albino American Alligator.

Rumor has it they let him roam around the center at night to keep out trespassers.

We spent a very full day at the Academy with tons to see and do and I'd highly recommend it if you're visiting San Francisco. The kids learned a lot and had a great time doing it.

After the Academy of Sciences, we took a Big Bus night tour, which was part of the 48 hour Big Bus pass and the only let down of the trip. Even as the day Big Bus tour pass got us to the pickup point for the tour 30 minutes before it left, it was already packed and we were crammed into the lower area at the back of the bus. Not only did we miss the views available to those on top, which was the point of the trip as you couldn't see what the tour guide was talking about most of the time, but we also got to sit right against the engine and it was pouring out heat the whole trip - and no window could be opened either to relieve the heat. In short, it sucked.

The only upside to the night trip was we got out of the darn bus at Treasure Island and got a great view of the Bay Bridge at night:

In short, we could have easily passed on the night trip with no great loss and a lot less sweat.

On Day 6 we rose, after a night interrupted by drunks or lunatics yelling outside the hotel, had a quick bite and headed to the airport, and that was the end of our travels in San Francisco.

Some Quick thoughts on San Francisco:

1. It's a very walkable, vibrant city with tons to see and do and excellent restaurants.

2. It's absolutely overrun with the homeless, including drunks, beggars, and mental types screaming at all hours of the night, including right outside the hotel. I haven't seen this many vagabonds in so many places, just about every street corner had at least one or two.

3. Probably due to number 2, The city has got quite a smell about it, with many bus stops having quite a urine-like aroma and on the streets as well.

4. Mass transit is not bad there given the small size of the city and the bus lines made sense once you puzzled them out. But, whoever thought having two cars on a subway train at a time made sense needs to get their head examined - each subway was packed to the gills. They should look to Toronto where the subways have multiple cars and actually move enough people around so there's not crowds waiting as full subways keep passing them by. The transit system seems to work reasonably well otherwise, and the transfer system was very useful.

5. For all their claims about tolerance and respect for civil rights, the San Francisco municipal government certainly needs to learn to respect some essential civil rights a lot more there.

Basically, San Fran is SWPL heaven writ large. The city really appears to be its own bubble powered by the tech industry and isolated from the rest of the country's economic reality. A very nice place to visit for the most part, but you can't afford to live there with a family.

San Fran Trip Day 4 - Brunch and Seeing The Sights

The morning after the wedding we were invited to Jared's work for a brunch. His workplace is in an industrial area with a spectacular view near 8th Street and clost to where Zynga has an office.

Since it was way too far from the hotel to walk, we had to either take a cab or the bus, and Natasha came up with a briliant third option: Sign up for the Big Bus Tours Hop On/Hopp off tour bus that makes a circuit around San Fran and from one of the stops take a bus down 8th to the building.

So we bought a 48 hour pass for us and the kids and took the Big Bus route from the hotel to the stop nearest 8th and then took a Muni bus southward. Into quite an industrial, run down, and rather spotty area. We then found the building and got in without further problems.

The office had a balcony area with great landscaping and a spectacular view:

It was a very nice brunch with family and friends both old and new and then we headed off to catch a Big Bus for more of a tour of the city and its environs.

8th is a one-way street, so we were planning to walk up it to get to the Big Bus stop after having trouble figuring out where to get a Muni bus to take us back up in the direction we needed to go. However, we were clearly warned in no uncertain terms by quite a few helpful passers-by near the Zynga building that you simply do not walk up 8th street as it is unsafe, and they directed us where to go to find the right bus, which was very nice of them.

We took the Muni bus to the Big Bus stop and then got on with our tour.

This tour bus had a live guide and she added a lot of fun local content to the tour, other buses had recorded audio but the live guides were certainly better and a lot more fun and informative.

One of the stops was to see San Francisco's city hall:

We then drove by Golden Gate Park, which we were to visit the next day, and entered the Haight-Ashbury neighborhood.

H-A was the nexus for the hippies and the whole Season of Love thing, and apparently is still a locus of hippie culture and a distribution zone for lots of brownies with herbal additives in them (no, we did not get off to partake). We passed by the mural of Jimi Hendrix:

We took it over the Golden Gate Bridge and into Sausalito.

Going over the bridge on the top of the bus was very cool - the wind roared along and it was a very cool experience.

Sausalito is a very pretty and very expensive town across the way, with some lovely views of San Francisco. We had lunch there in an Italian cafe - the wood burning pizza oven made some incredible pizza.

Then we took the bus back to San Fran and got off at Union Square, where we had dinner at the Cheesecake Factory. First time having gone to one, and it was pretty full with a 20 minute wait to get a seat. It was worth it, and the cheesecake was at the very least to seriously maim for.

It was a very fun full day indeed.

San Francisco Trip Day 3 - The Wedding

After the Mythbusters Show, we hurried back to the hotel to change and get ready for why we were in San Fran in the first place - the Wedding.

My little brother Dorian was getting married.

This was to be the first wedding to be held at the Mission Club, a new high-end bar and bowling alley in the Mission district of San Fran.

With all of both side's families there it was standing room only.

Here's the happy couple:

Yes, it's two good men, Dorian and Jared, getting married. It is San Francisco after all.

It was a rather mixed marriage: A Jew and a Mormon entered a bar, so they got married. By a Buddhist officiant, of course. And there was much rejoicing.

What conservative opponents of Gay Marriage are missing is the conservative case for Gay Marriage (libertarians have already got the "if it's consensual between consenting adults so what" part down pat):

Marriage is a stabilizing force that helps form families. While non-traditional, a couple in a stable loving relationship is certainly more desirable than not, and they're then far more invested in greater society as a result rather than being on the outside looking in.

I'm very happy that he's happy in what has been a real, long-standing, loving, and stable relationship with another great guy.

So surrounded by friends and family, these two took their vows and were legally married.

There was then a great party with speeches from the parents and then there was dancing with the first dance being the happy couple:

This was followed by eating, drinking with an open bar, and a sampling of fine Bourbons in the upstairs alcove, and more dancing.

And of course, there was bowling.

Quite simply, out of 20 or so weddings I've been to, this one was one of the best.

Congrats Dorian and Jared!

Safely Back From San Fran

Arrived last night after a pleasant but long flight, marred only by some crying kids (not my own - mine were the best behaved on the flight, period). Delta certainly gives a much better flying experience than Northwest ever did.

Further posts relating to the trip to follow. In short, we had a great time.

Now I need to get used to the time change back to Eastern Daylight Savings Time.

San Francisco Trip Day 3

Day 3 started with a lovely breakfast with two of perhaps the nicest people in the world - my godfather and godmother Derek and Ann, who are now also honorary great-god-parents to our kids. They knew my parents from before I was born and they've been great friends with my Dad ever since. A finer couple of people you will simply be hard put to meet.

We went with them into Chinatown and found the famous Golden Gate fortune cookie factory. Its in Ross Alley and was a bit hard to find but very cool once we found it.

The kids got to make their own fortune cookies and helped make others. For $1.00 you could put a custom message in it and take home your own cooto kie, which the kids did. It was quite busy so I didn't get the chance to write "Help! I'm trapped in a Chinese Fortune Cookie Factory!" as a gag gift...next time.

Then we went to another must see location in San Fran - Ghiradelli Square

There are three separate Ghiradelli shops at the square and each one gives out a free sample of chocolate. If you do the rotation right you can keep going around and getting a free square at each ad infinitum or until you finally pass out from chocolate overload.

You can look at some of the original chocolate factory machines still making chocolate as a demonstration only:

Yum.

After our fill of samples, we bought some chocolate bars as gifts to people at home and took in some sights, including a great view of the bay from the factory square landing.

In the bay was the ship that was used in the movie Mutiny on the Bounty:

After that we walked to the theater district and the Orpheus Theater. On the way we went through some pretty seedy areas, including seeing a street craps game and tons of homeless people, including many that were passed out mid-day, which was educational so to speak, but we made it there without any incidents.

We had pre-bought tickets for the Orpheum theater so the kids could watch a live show of their favorite TV Show - Mythbusters.

The live show was cool beyond words, and included stunts, tricks and live demonstrations of science including suspending Adam from the theater ceiling from the friction of two interlaced phone books alone.

The kids loved seeing Adam and Jamie live and it was a fantastic show.

Then we headed back to the hotel to change and prepare for the event which was the reason we had come to San Francisco.

Day 2 Tour 2 - Gone To The Ducks

We rode a DUKW to be more precise.

These DUKWs in particular belonged to the Ride The Ducks tour, which we took around San Francisco, and into San Francisco Bay. The 6x6 amphibious DUKW did yeoman service in World War 2 and beyond, and many still run as amphibious tours in the US and Europe.

The tour begins with a detailed and entertaining tour of San Francisco. Our driver, Captain Fantastic, gave humor-filled observations about the various sights of the city and accompanied them to appropriately themed music.

In addition to music, there was also quacking.

The quackers, conveniently shaped like a duck's bill made quacking sounds were handed out and all passengers were invited to quack to the music, quack at passers-by, or just quack if the mood struck. Music such as the chicken dance and the Danube Waltz warmed up the quackers quite nicely.

We saw lots of sights including Chinatown, Lombard Street, the shopping district, Fisherman's Wharf, and AT&T park where the San Fran Giants play.

Note the pyramid building in the backgroud. It's the Transamerica Pyramid, the tallest skyscraper in San Fran. Captain Fantastic explained there was quite the resistance to it being built, but once built the opposition died away as removing it would have left the city-scape pointless. Yes, like I said, the tour had a sense of humor to it.

During our travels, we passed by a Muni streetcar.

Note the side stating "Zero Emissions Vehicle" -- it's powered by pure smug.

Actually, it's really a coal-powered vehicle, but since the emissions are far away, that doesn't seem to reduce the smug factor.

Then the important question, would this duck take to water?

Indeed, it did.

The transition to the water was pretty seamless, down the ramp into the water and we had turned into a boat.

We passed by barges, dry docks, and large RO-RO ships:

These ships, the MV Cape Horn and MV Cape Hudson, are designed to quickly load military equipment and rapidly transport it anywhere in the world it is needed. Fully loaded tanks can drive up the ramp and onto any of three levels on the ships and then drive straight off into battle if need be.

Nothing like seeing a large ship in the driver's side mirror.

Then it was time for the highlight of the tour: The kids got a chance to drive the DUKW!

Leah was the first kid on board to get a chance to drive, and with the Captain's instructions she turned the wheel to the left, performing an excellent left turn and avoiding a collision with the RO-RO ships. Her first time driving was a success. Abby was next and similarly did a great job. All other kids on board also got a chance and it was a very cool activity for all of them.

After the kids drove, we headed back onto land and completed the tour. Quite simply, there's no better way to tour San Francisco than by Duck! Simply an awesome tour.

SFO Day 2 Tour 1 - USS Pampanito SS-383

The USS Pampanito, SS-383, a Balao class World War 2 submarine is now moored as a museum and memorial submarine in San Francisco Harbor.

Built in 1943, she had 6 successful war patrols, including a patrol where she sank a Japanese prisoner of war ship and then subsequently rescued 73 British and Australian survivors.

Beside the USS Pampanito is a granite memorial to the 52 United States World War 2 submarines that are, even now, "still on patrol".

Here's a view of the front and rear of the conning tower. The 4-inch deck gun still has nice crisp rifling after all these years. Note the broom hanging from the conning tower indicating a clean sweep - a successful patrol.

The tour begins from the aft of the boat and makes its way forward. We begin in the aft torpedo room.

Torpedos still sleep in their racks in the room.

Note the bunks where crewmen slept above the sleeping fish, and right in front of the stern torpedo tubes.

Immediately past the aft torpedo room, in the maneuvering room is the crew toilet.

Note the valve above the door for air circulation:

The aft maneuvering room is pretty crowded

Each engine had its own control lever.

The washing machine and sink was a highlight for the kids to see.

The main crew bunkroom really gave them idea of how close the quarters were, and they were further impressed when told that each bunk was shared by the crew that slept in shifts, and aside from stuffing their uniforms in the mattresses, their entire storage area for personal items consisted of this locker.

The crew mess area included a table with a checker board.

The galley kitchen was also a tight space for prepping meals for feeding 83 crewmen.

Next was the Pompanito's radio room.

The typewriter you see center right isn't a typewriter. It's a code machine for encrypting and decrypting communications to and from the submarine.

Then on to the control room, where the Christmas-tree panel indicates the status of every opening in the ship's hull.

The lights were kept red in this room to preserve the deck crew's night vision. Interestingly enough, the current bulbs are red compact CFLs - yes, you're definitely in California.

Unfortunately, access to the conning tower is blocked off.

The tour continues through the submarine, letting you view the wardroom and officer's quarters and ending in the forward torpedo room, where you exit out the forward torpedo loading hatch.

The USS Pampanito is a well-preserved piece of American World War Two naval history and deserves a visit if you're ever in San Francisco.