Prediction on The Ukraine Crisis

Failing any miscalculation or an over-enthusiastic underling somewhere messing things up, here's how I expect the Ukraine crisis to resolve.

1.  Russia gets dominion, whether by formal annexation or by influence/ volunteer occupation, over the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, which is likely all that Putin wanted this round anyways as well as sending a message that Ukraine was not to join NATO.

This was just affirmed by the Biden administration as it immediately announced sanctions over these two regions - before they have actually separated from Ukraine. That's a rather tacit recognition of the breakaway - you don't sanction a part of Ukraine that is still a part of Ukraine, especially when Ukraine is your putative ally.

There will be some noise, the announced sanctions will not actually prevent Russian hegemony over the region, and the sanctions themselves will be easily routed around by Russia. 

2.  Putin gets to shore up his support in Russia by appearing to be a strongman and looking after the Russians in the regions he just separated from Ukraine - not to mention the resources of the regions. He also made Western Europe very aware of his hand on their energy spigot.

3.  Biden gets the media to trumpet his foreign policy victory of preventing war in Europe by his "tough" imposition of sanctions on the region and threats of economic sanctions on Russia after he beat the drums on the crisis by repeatedly claiming Russia had decided to invade and he'll now claim his toughness stopped it.  He gets a foreign policy distraction from the mess he's made domestically and the media can showcase his  "success" in stopping a war in Europe.

4.  The media uses this to rehabilitate Kamala Harris's image a bit as she was sent there by Biden to represent him on the situation.  Even as she gave a ridiculous, pablum-filled,  and self-contradictory speech  ("We will deter an invasion because we will impose severe sanctions if Putin does anything" and "Putin has already decided to invade" - in the same speech) she will get lots of positive coverage.  The buffing of her image is already occurring.

5.  Western Europe, after reducing their own energy generation, now remains assured of a continued flow of their needed natural gas from Russia that they depend on, so long as they don't actually do anything against Russia's territorial ambitions. All it cost was a few regions of a country they don't care much about anyways and can't do much for in any case.

In short, everybody involved wins a nice victory for domestic consumption and distraction.  Everyone, that is, except Ukraine, and the Eastern European independent states that are going to be even more nervous of being left to twist in the wind after this crisis.