Inflation Isn't Rearing It's Ugly Head Again, It's Just Being Actually Accurately Reported Again

Right on time for President Trump to take office, the data now shows inflation increasing.

Reason: Trump May Have To Grapple with Returning Inflation

We will note that Reason, an ostensibly libertarian publication is no friend of Trump.  Verily, Reason seems to be having vapors about his actually reducing the size, scope, and spending of government - something you would think a libertarian would cheer for, neh?

One would think so, but no. Basically Reason at this point is all about marijuana legalization and wide open borders, and damn little else. 

It is not "returning inflation", instead it is that inflation is now being reported accurately again after the books have been cooked and the data tortured the past four years.

Politico: How Democrats Were Tricked Into Believing the Economy Was Strong

The Democrats, pace Politico, weren't being "Tricked" -- they were the ones running the trick.  

The Biden-run government agencies were the ones massaging the data and running the scam under reporting inflation and messing with job statistics to give the picture of a rosy economy under Biden that wasn't. 

The Biden Administration and the media establishment (But I'm repeating myself) had been busy boasting and talking up how wonderful the economy under Biden has been, how Biden achieved a "soft landing" and  try to give him a boost for his reelection and then for Harris when even the massaged stats couldn't get him to the finish line.

The administration and media both made themselves busy asking Americans - "Who are going to believe Biden and the Media, or your own lyin' eyes?"

Now that Biden is out, the stats are being reported, presumably more accurately, just in time for President Trump to have to deal with the results of the massive overspending and effects of the policies Biden has left behind. 

The Fed's decision on setting interest rates - including reducing them right before the election which just so happened to assist Biden, was doing so based on the statistics being manipulated.  

The deliberate false reporting of government statistics,  statistics relied upon to set economic policy, should be seen as one of the greatest scandals of the Biden era.  

Perhaps one day it will be.

Since We're Already in One, I'd Say The Odds Are Pretty Good

The Detroit Free Press, ever covering for the Democrats had the following article: What are the odds of a U.S. recession in 2023?

Since we're already in one I'd say the odds are pretty much 100%.

Indeed, now Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is backing away from his statement of just 11 days ago that higher rates likely won't cause a deep recession, it doesn't look good.

Fox Business: Fed's Powell abandons promise of 'soft landing' amid inflation fight

Given Powell's previous wrong statements that inflation frrm his and Biden's monetary policies would be merely tranistory, and that he;s now abandoning his promise that he can controlinflation while creating a "soft landing", I'd say that economic reality that their actions are goign to cvause a deep recession is pretty much spot on.

Inflation and flooding the economy with dollars may make you feel pretty good initially, and Biden is trying to keep the bender going by continuing spending under the "Inflation Reduction Act" that will actually increase inflation, and spending over half a trillion in forgiving his supporters' student loans.  

But, the hangover is going to suck - and its going to hurt those of us who weren't even drinking the Democrat's Modern Monetary Theory Kool-Aid.

Well, That's Very Reassuring

The Detroit News: Powell: Higher rates won’t likely cause deep US recession

This statement is not reassuring, at all.

Remember, this is the same Powell that stated  in the not-so-distant past that the "Recent Rise in Inflation Is ‘Transitory - as inflation that proved it was not transitory at all.

Turns out it is not, in fact, transitory and it is still very much continuing.

You know, the same transitory inflation that he later admitted he was wrong about and has now been raising interest rates to try to beat down, even as the Biden administration continues to flood the economy with more government spending and more dollars into circulation?

Yes, him.

His current statement that raising rates now won't likely cause a deep US recession needs to be taken with a large block of salt, not to mention an expectation that we're about to hit a deep US recession considering his prognostication accuracy to date.

Gov. Whitmer's Proposed Vote Buying Spree

The State of Michigan is currently flush with cash - both from state tax revenue being up and lots of that sweet, sweet Biden money. So, since an election is coming up, it's time for her to buy votes with taxpayer money.

The Detroit News:  Whitmer urges $500 rebate; House, Senate push $2.6B in tax relief

Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer asked legislative leaders to consider sending $500 rebates to residents. . . . Revenue estimates for the current and coming fiscal years are expected to come in $4 billion to $5 billion higher than the state predicted in its last January estimate — a surplus not accounted for in current budget plans.

If you read the article, the Demas are proposing to target these $500 checks not to every resident but to lower income ones only as "inflation releif paymentrs" - so the plan is for relief provided by tax-payer money and debt from a Democrat Governor for the inflation caused by a Democrat President's policies. Not to mention giving out another $500 to be spent is itself inflationary. Awesome plan.

Quick question governor- Whatever just happened to the Governor's urgent need for money to "fix the damn roads" then? 

She was all for a tax increase to do that, but now that a tax increase isn't needed as the budget is fat on federal money, she wants to not channel it to "fix the damn roads" but instead hand it out to buy votes.  Of course, shes against a broad-based relief like a state income tax cut to provide relief to those who are paying into the system whose money made the surplus occur in the first place.

November can't come soon enough.

Biden To Ban Russian Oil Imports With No Real Proposed Replacement

Except perhaps, to enrich our enemies in Iran and Venezuela instead of Russia, because increasing US production to the level Trump had it at is bad per Biden the Democrats, even as he lies and claims he's doing all he can to increase production and conveniently forgets his closing of Keystone and multiple oil and gas leases.

Youtube: President Joe Biden bans all Russian oil imports over Ukraine invasion

Do note he was rather late for the scheduled 10:45 am announcement. claiming he was on a phone call.  Probably they had to pump him up full of Adderall and wait for the Aricept to kick in before having him make the address.

At the end of his short address, he then refused to take a single question, and quickly walked out of the presentation room without looking back.

Biden did an excellent job of demonstrating the "Old Man Yells at Clouds technique" during the address,  threatening American oil producers  and accusing them of price gouging.  

Yet again in Biden-land it's the wreckers and kulaks to blame, when instead the increases began and are are due to his energy policies pre-Ukraine crisis and his inflating the economy by throwing trillions at it.   Note we weren't importing 8% of our oil form Russia pre-Biden. The Ukraine crisis is just making all this worse and showing the bad choices by Biden and the Democrats that got us here.

Biden also trumpeted his release of 30 million barrels from the strategic reserve - the same release where oil prices went up the same day of the release.  Brilliant and effective strategy there.

He also had the occasional weird stumble where he clearly was tripping over his words and changed statements mid-stream.

In short gas and oil prices in the USA are going to go up even higher, prices of items dependent on transportation (ie just about everything) will also go up higher,  and the Biden Administration has no solution for it and refuses to push for the one solution that might alleviate it - a rapid increase of American oil production with the Administration getting the hell out of the way and cutting the red tape they've laid to stop it, not to mention the need for immediately  reversing his policy of closing oil and gas leases on federal lands.  Chance of him doing so?  Slim to none but watch the polls to influence his actions, just as they did with Covid - assuming he can win over the prog-greenies to the necessity of it.

Top Men are really running this show. Top. Men.

IRS Mileage Increase For 2022 Doesn't Quite Keep Up With Inflation

The IRS has announced an increase in the standard deductible mileage calculation.

Instead of .56 per mile, you can now use 58.5 cents for your standard deductible mileage calculation.

Nice of them to recognise the increase in costs, but that's an increase of all of 4.5 percent.

Meanwhile, in reality, gasoline is up on average 57%, diesel is up 44%, and car maintenance and repair costs are also up.

Inflation And Product Shrinkage - The Subtle Way Of Paying More For Less

Peter at Bayou Renaissance Man has a rather sobering post up about inflation - complete with the mind-boggling fact that 40% of all dollars in existence were produced in the last year alone.

40 percent.

That which can't go on forever, won't.  

The amazing question is how are we not facing massive inflation after all these dollars have been injected into the economy in such a short time?  

We're being told that inflation is a measly and practically non-existent 1.4%

How can this be?

Some of it is demand destruction preventing inflation - locking down the economy over the past year certainly slowed the velocity of money by quite a bit and chilled if not froze out the economy almost completely.  

Some of it is the money being invested into the stock market where it's raising the price of stocks by leaps and bounds and likely creating an asset bubble, and in other investments, but not entering the real world of shops and everyday prices.

Yet, in other ways inflation is already here and eating into our savings and raising prices - but in an insidious manner.  Instead of paying more for the same, you'll now pay more for less - and you'll either not be told of the switch - or be told it's good for you and the environment.

Yahoo News: Coca-Cola Debuts New Bottle Size, Recycled Packaging Strategy

The Atlanta-based company's new 13.2 ounce bottle will be introduced this month for the Coca-Cola Trademark line . . .with a nationwide rollout by the end of 2022.

The new 13.2 oz. bottle is smaller than the retail staple 20 oz. bottle and slightly larger than the 12 oz. aluminum can used by the company. In a press statement, Coca-Cola said the new bottle is "a more sippable package and reduces the use of new plastic."

Expect it to replace the 20oz in the name of reduced packaging and the environment, and I'd wager you'll pay close to, if not the same as what the 20oz bottle was going for now when you buy the 13.2 oz bottle - a third less in size for what I expect will be 20oz prices within the next year - an inflation rate as far as Coca-Cola goes that far exceeds the official 1.4% rate.

Coca-Cola isn't the only company reducing the size of its products while maintaining prices and you can expect even more of these reductions, sold as environmental awareness rather than the raising of prices, in the near future.

What Is It That Happens When There's More Money Chasing Fewer Goods Again?

Oh yeah, that.

The Detroit Free Press: Food prices soar to highest one-month increase since 1974

Well, when you shut down all stores but those deemed essential, basically leaving groceries as the only thing to spend money on. Then combine it with the shutting down of processing plants and the collapse of the food supply chain when you shut down certain elements you managed to forget were essential, and add real problems at processing plants, and you get this.

Grocery store bills shot up April, showing the biggest monthly increase in nearly 50 years, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistic's monthly Consumer Price Index report.

While overall the April CPI declined 0.8%, consumers on average paid 2.6% more for groceries. It's the largest one-month increase since February 1974. During the last 12 months, grocery prices rose 4.1%.

Price increases in the meat, poultry, fish and egg category were the steepest.

The Interest Is Up And The Stock Market's Down

It's not a sign of a robust recovery when markets drop at the merest hint the Fed may reduce its stimulus and ZIRp interest rate policy.

The Detroit Free Press: Susan Tompor: Markets having worst day of year

Today investors saw a flashback to the down days of cheese and crackers. After 3 p.m., the Dow was down about 313 points or 2.13% and trading at 14,798.25 points. It looks like the worst day for 2013 so far.

This week, the Federal Reserve’s open market committee made no changes to interest rates or monetary policy. But the Fed gave a hint that the economy is looking stronger.

One key phrase in the Fed’s statement: “Labor market conditions have shown further improvement in recent months.”

Another key Fed phrase: “The downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market have diminished since the fall.”

Yes, better days. But some say that Wall Street is now worried about the Fed engaging in a quick, more restrictive monetary policy ahead.

Something tells me we're in for one helluva ride, and this is even before the full effects of Obamacare roil and roll the economy and markets even more.

We Can't Stimulate Our Way Out Of This, But They'll Continue To Try

The New York Times: Fed Pledges to Maintain Stimulus

The Federal Reserve said Wednesday that it would continue its economic stimulus campaign, aimed at reducing unemployment, amid fresh evidence of a housing recovery that could help to bolster those efforts.

Because the answer to when something isn't working is always to do more of it, and harder.

The Fed announced after its last meeting, in September, that it would buy $40 billion in mortgage securities each month until the jobs outlook improved, a significant expansion of its stimulus campaign. It also said it intended to keep short-term interest rates near zero at least until mid-2015. ...........

Under a separate program begun last year, the Fed also is buying about $45 billion in long-term Treasury securities each month. Those purchases are scheduled to end in December. Officials have said they will consider extending the program depending on the condition of the economy.

So, the Fed is admittedly buying, at the very least, $85 Billion in securities each and every month. Anyone want to know hoe long that can last, and what if anything they're buying it with?

But fear not, it is still full speed ahead:

The central bank appears determined to press its campaign until it is certain of the results, so long as inflation remains under control. It has been chastened by a series of misjudgments, after declaring several times in recent years that the recovery was gaining strength only to conclude that more stimulus was needed.

Now, what could possibly go wrong with a continually expanding money supply?

I Hope That Someone Gets My Message In A Bottle

An example of better late than never:

Foxnews: 98-year-old message in bottle sets world record

It was scooped up from the sea after 98 years, and now officials say a message in a bottle discovered in Scotland has set a world record.

Fisherman Andrew Leaper found the bottle-- released in 1914 -- in his nets in April while sailing east of the Shetland Islands, which lie off Scotland's northern coast.

Guinness World Records confirmed Thursday the find is the oldest message in a bottle ever recovered, beating a previous record by five years.

I'd hate to be stuck on a deserted island awaiting relief if I was depending on that current. Then again, the quality any bottle and stopper that can take the beating the sea offers for 98 years and remain intact is certainly to be admired.

Inside each bottle, a postcard asks the finder to record details of the discovery and promises a reward of a sixpence. Unfortunately for Leaper, the coin no longer exists.

While the six pence is no longer in circulation, we can calculate what Mr. Leaper should be paid.

The purchasing power of a six pence from 1914 will buy, depending on the analysis you use, either 1 pound 87 pence using the retail price index or 7 pounds, 38 pence in terms of comparable average earnings based on 2010 data.

And there already is a song written that is suitable for the occasion:

Inflationary Signs Of The Times

Walmart shopper tries to pay with 1 Million Dollar bill

Police say a North Carolina man insisted his million-dollar note was real when he was buying $476 worth of items at a Walmart.

Investigators told the Winston-Salem Journal that 53-year-old Michael Fuller tried to buy a vacuum cleaner, a microwave oven and other items. Store employees called police after his insistence that the bill was legit, and Fuller was arrested.

The largest bill in circulation is $100. The government stopped making bills of up to $10,000 in 1969.

The man, while an idiot, may just be a bit ahead of his time.

Coins of Gallienus: The Praetorians, the VII Legion, and Inflation

In the coins of the Roman Emperor Gallienus, who lived from AD ca. 213 - AD 268 and was Emperor from 253-268, we can visibly see the effects of inflation on the Roman coinage.

Gallienus as emperor had to deal with incursions into the Empire from the Persians and the Goths, slaughtering 50,000 Goths at the battle of Naissus in what is today Yugoslavia. He also had to handle a conflict with Palmyra and he also had to contend with the rebellions of Macrianus and Quietus in the east, Mussius Aemilianus in Egypt, Regalianus in Illyrica, Postumus and Aureolus in the west.

Ensuring the loyalty of the armies during these crises grew increasingly expensive as well as a vital necessity. Inflation occurred with the precious metal content of the coinage steadily decreasing as the Roman fisc tried to keep up with a multitude of expenses both military and civilian.

The Antoninianus, itself an answer to inflation supplanting the denarius, goes from a silver coin to a silver-washed bronze piece.

The coinage of Gallienus bears a multitude of interesting motifs, from wild animals to a series honoring the Roman Legions by name and number, one of only 4 such striking of Legionary coins series in the Roman coinage.

The Legionary series was meant to show the loyalty of the armies and Praetorian cohort was to the emperor even in the face of the numerous rebellions occurring against him.

The Praetorian Cohort Antoninianus:

Obverse: GALLIENVS AVG, Emperor draped bust, facing right with radiate crown.

Reverse: COHH PRAET VI P VI F, radiate lion walking right.

This coin honored the Praetorian cohort.

The Legionary Antoninianus of the 7th Legion:

Obverse: GALLIENVS AVG
Emperor draped bust, facing right with radiate crown.

Reverse: LEG VII CL VI P VI F, (Legion VII Claudia Pia Fidelis) bull walking right.

In September 268, Gallienus was killed in his camp by his own officers. Included in the plot to assassinate him was the commander of the Praetorian Guard, Heraclianus.

Gallienus was succeeded to the purple by Claudius II Gothicus, one of Gallienus' officers and conspirators who arranged his assassination.

As Dollar Inflates, Michigan's Gas Prices Rise

Unexpectedly, of course.

Fill-up fears: Michigan drivers face $3 a gallon at pump

Michigan drivers got hit with a 20-cent increase at the gas pumps this past weekend, sending the average price for regular unleaded fuel above $3 a gallon for the first time in two years.

At a time when fuel costs usually drop following the summer tourism season, statewide prices surged to $3.04 a gallon, AAA Michigan spokeswoman Nancy Cain reported Monday. "It's surprising that this is happening," Cain said. "It's very unusual."

Why the price spike?

The spike is being fueled, according to AAA and two Michigan economists, by a weak American dollar that causes the prices of commodities like food, metals and gas to increase because the American currency has less power to buy items from abroad — especially since the United States imports more than 60 percent of its oil supply.

You can't keep on with Quantitative Easing and putting more and more dollars into circulation and not expect commodities to increase in dollar value as a result as each dollar is now worth less and less.